Trade Balance

China's import-export galloped in September: +7.4% and +8.3%

US-China bilateral negotiations on the brink of collapse, but Beijing Customs reports an increase in exports (+8.3%) and imports (+7.4) in September thanks to the substitution effect on demand from North America

by Rita Fatiguso

13 October 2025

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

China's most effective weapon in its negotiations with the US, dramatically in the balance of trade after the weekend's frictions, is its trade balance. Beijing Customs shows that Chinese exports are galloping, rising 8.3% in September in US dollar terms from a year ago, beating Reuters estimates of a 7.1% increase and picking up pace after slowing to a six-month low in August. Imports rose 7.4% last month from a year ago, far exceeding Reuters estimates for 1.5% growth, the strongest pace in a year.

Bilateral tensions and threats

Beijing and Washington have been at loggerheads in recent days, threatening to derail bilateral trade talks. US President Donald Trump has threatened an additional 100% levy on Chinese exports and tighter controls on critical software exports. Beijing, meanwhile, has expanded restrictions on rare earth exports effective next month and lengthened its blacklist of "untrustworthy entities" to include chip consultancy TechInsights. China has also opened a new antitrust investigation into American semiconductor firm Qualcomm. The contenders have threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on ships docking in China.

The request to return to the table

The US accounts for only 0.1 per cent of global shipbuilding, compared to China's 53.3 per cent, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Chinese customs spokesman Lyu Daliang told a press conference that Beijing hoped the US would realise it was taking the wrong approach by raising port fees and urged Washington to return to dialogue and negotiation.

Lyu added that new tariffs introduced by several countries this year have hurt businesses and disrupted the global economy, saying China remains committed to supporting multilateral trade.

The reluctance of China - the world's largest soybean importer - to resume purchases of US crops has further dimmed hopes for a trade deal. Trump said earlier this month that he hoped to pressure the Chinese president at a meeting scheduled for late October to end the months-long moratorium on US soybean purchases.

China's Ministry of Commerce said in a roundabout way that the US should back down on tariff threats and urged further talks to resolve outstanding trade issues. "Threatening with high tariffs at any time is not the right way to get along with China," the Ministry of Commerce said. If the US persists in its course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

Beijing has already changed course

Less North America, more Global South. After years of trade tensions and reciprocal sanctions with Washington, China has embarked on a phase of greater economic pragmatism, which explains the resilience shown in recent months. The pressures have driven Beijing to a new strategy.

The decision, just formalised, to enter as an Observer Country in the Andean Community (CAN), which brings together Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, goes in this direction. The Andean area is among the richest in copper, lithium and agricultural products, fundamental resources for China's industrial and technological transition, particularly in the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors. This is an important piece in Beijing's trade diversification strategy.

China is proving to be able to respond with a less ideological and more adaptive strategy, in which global alliances become the main lever to preserve competitiveness and influence. At the heart of this design is a more sophisticated economic diplomacy, built on strategic alliances, preferential partnerships and bilateral agreements ranging from energy to technology, from infrastructure to industrial security.

China's entry into the Andean Community

Even before the data released today, the latest available trade balance showed China's total exports in the first eight months of 2025 at USD 2,451,795 million, up +5.9% year-on-year. While exports to the United States have been declining steadily in recent months (-15.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 vs 2024), China has been intensifying relations with new emerging partners, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America. According to the latest trade balance data, exports to ASEAN grew by +14.6%, to Africa by +24.7% and to Latin America by +5.8% in the same period, while sales to the European Union return to positive territory (+7.5%).

The era of tariff wars has left deep marks: exports to the United States, once the main destination of Chinese products, are now surpassed by those to ASEAN countries, which account for more than 20% of total exports. This geographical reconfiguration of trade flows reflects a long-term strategy: reducing dependence on the US market and consolidating a network of economic alliances in the Global South.

China has intensified its focus on Latin America, promoting a 'win-win' cooperation model combining infrastructure investment, technology exchange and support for agricultural development.

The new status at the Andean Community confirms Beijing's desire to consolidate its presence in regions rich in raw materials and to strengthen a multipolar alliance system capable of balancing American influence.

Each new arrangement is aimed at strengthening industrial security and access to critical resources. However, the tone of China's trade diplomacy has changed: less confrontational, more inclusive, with a language that emphasises regional integration and stability. After a decade of assertive expansion, Beijing now appears intent on consolidating its acquired positions, relying on a network of diversified partnerships rather than on single dominant bilateral relationships.

In Asia, let us remember, Beijing leads the RCEP, the world's largest trade agreement, on which 30% of its trade balance depends, and maintains privileged agreements with Australia, South Korea and Singapore. In Africa, it has reduced tariffs to zero for 53 countries, consolidating its influence on a continent crucial for future growth. And in the Middle East, it has strengthened energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Iran, while in Central Asia it has promoted new logistics and digital corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative.