Green transition

Clean energy beats fossils 2:1, but not enough to save the climate

International Energy Agency: Oil & gas investments are too high and only 4% of spending on green sources comes from oil & gas companies

by Gianluca Di Donfrancesco

Tg Green 6 giugno – Sul tetto della Fiera di Milano l'impianto fotovoltaico più grande d'Italia

3' min read

3' min read

Clean energy beats dirty fuels 2 to 1: that is the ratio between investments in green sources, which will reach $2 trillion in 2024, and fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency (Iea). The $1 trillion - which will end up in oil, gas and coal - is still too much to contain climate change to acceptable levels, the Iea study points out.

On the same day as the publication of the World Energy Investment report, the EU climate service, Copernicus, has sanctioned that May 2024 was the 12th month in a row to break heat records: the average global temperature over the past 12 months, from June 2023 to May 2024, was the highest ever recorded, 1.63° above the pre-industrial average 1850-1900, above the 1.5° limit set by the Paris Agreement.

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The Overtaking

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Combined investments in clean technologies (renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear, grids, CO2 storage, energy efficiency, low-emission fuels) already exceeded those in fossil fuels in 2023. And this despite the difficulties created by inflation and high interest rates, which have held back several projects, particularly in wind power.

"We have reached an important milestone. Investment in clean energy is setting new records," said Iea Director Fatih Birol. "The increase in clean energy spending is supported by continued cost reductions and energy security issues," Birol added. "In 2023, every dollar invested in wind and photovoltaics generated 2.5 times more energy than a dollar spent on the same technologies a decade earlier," the report said.

The photovoltaic boom

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Spending on photovoltaics, in particular, now exceeds that of any other electricity generation technology, with investments set to grow to USD 500 billion by 2024, thanks to falling solar module prices. In the first quarter of 2024, solar accounted for as much as 75 per cent of additional installed generation capacity in the United States.

Big oil allergic to green

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However, the expansion of fossil fuel demand, the report points out, continues at a pace that points towards catastrophic climate change.

The Iea predicts that global upstream oil and gas investment will increase by 7% in 2024, to $570bn, due to the choices of national oil companies (Noc) in the Middle East and Asia, "which have increased their oil and gas investments by more than 50% since 2017 and account for almost all of the increase in spending for the 2023-2024 period".

The industry's contribution to the green transition is negligible. According to the Iea, oil and gas companies' expenditure on clean energy was USD 28 billion in 2023 (with Noc standing at just USD 1.5 billion), i.e. less than 4% of global clean energy investments and less than 1% of net profits earned.

Almost half of the clean energy investments by the oil and gas industry in 2023 were concentrated in company acquisitions, mainly in CO2 capture and storage, which serve to continue pumping fossil fuels in the hope of being able to remove the greenhouse gases generated.

Change of strategy

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To reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050, writes the Iea, annual investments in oil, gas and coal must be halved and collapse to less than USD 450 billion per year by 2030, while spending on low-emission fuels must increase tenfold to around USD 200 billion in 2030, from just under USD 20 billion today.

According to the Iea, tripling renewable capacity by 2030, a commitment made at Cop28 in Dubai, requires a doubling of annual expenditure. And an even greater effort is needed to meet the other major Cop28 commitment, doubling energy efficiency. Here, it will be necessary to triple annual spending to about USD 1.9 trillion by 2030.

China's pull

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China leads investment in clean energy, with an estimated USD 680 billion by 2024 (one third of the world total), thanks to strong domestic demand for solar power, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles.

This is followed by Europe, at $370 billion (20% of the total), and the United States, at $315 billion (15% of the total). Investment in clean energy in emerging (excluding China) and developing economies remains low at around $320 billion, just 15% of the total.

Beijing's heavy investment in clean energy coexists with dependence on polluting sources, particularly coal. However, use of the dirtiest of fuels is declining and soon China will be overtaken by India as the world's largest importer. New Delhi has announced plans to increase production national coal production and investment, which has already increased by 5% in 2023, will grow by almost 10% in 2024..

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