Commercial desertification: fewer and fewer shops in Italian cities
Sangalli: 'It has become an emergency that penalises urban areas, with fewer services and less security'
The trend of business closures in Italy is accelerating. This is stated by Mariano Bella, director of the Confcommercio Studies Office, who points out a worrying acceleration "with an average annual rate of 3.1% in 2025 against the 2.2% observed in previous analyses," Bella says, "with the risk that by 2035 we will have less well-lit cities, some dormitory districts, an elderly population with difficulty in doing their shopping, and even the possibility of greater urban decay. This is what is revealed by the new analysis 'Cities and demographics' carried out by the Confcommercio Studies Office and presented today by Bella together with Paolo Testa, head of Urban Planning and Regeneration for the association. The analysis covers 122 Italian cities, 107 provincial capitals and 15 more populous non-papal municipalities, excluding large metropolises such as Milan and Rome, and photographs the trends in 18 categories of economic activity, distinguishing between historic city centres and the rest of the urban area.
"Between 2012 and 2025, 156 thousand retail and hawker outlets disappeared in Italy, more than a quarter of the total. Only the number of businesses in the accommodation and catering sector is growing (+19 thousand) and the number of vacant commercial premises is increasing," Bella continues. "As far as e-commerce is concerned, in 2025 online sales will account for 11.3% of the total consumption of goods that can be purchased online and 18.4% of services, contributing to reducing the number of physical shops and changing the organisation of the commercial offer. Above all, while the total retail sales index changed by +14.4% between 2015 and 2025, small areas are at a complete standstill (0.0%) while online sales almost tripled (+187%). In 2019, the value of online sales was 31.4 billion, in 2025 it reached 62.3 billion. This process, together with socio-economic and demographic transformations, tends to trigger a vicious circle: the reduction in the number of shops reduces the commercial attractiveness of urban areas and further fuels the contraction of supply".
"Commercial desertification has become an emergency that penalises urban areas, with fewer services and less security. Our Cities project must be launched with the mayors on three priorities: regulating the commercial offer in historical centres, immediate reuse of vacant premises, and combining economic development and town planning," says Carlo Sangalli, president of Confcommercio, commenting on the Confederation's Studies Office data.
Emergency closures and cities
According to the surveys, it is becoming almost impossible to find a newsagent's, between 2012 and 2025 52% of kiosks closed down, as did petrol stations (-43%), clothing and footwear shops (-37%) and furniture and hardware shops (-36%), while itinerant trade recorded -29.7%. On the other hand, non-hotel activities (+184%), restaurants (+35%), delicatessens, ice cream parlours and pastry shops (+14.4%) and pharmacies (+9.8%) bucked the trend. Business closures involved all the towns on the Peninsula (see table) with no particular differences between North and South, inland areas and along the coast. Crotone stands out among them all, where the situation has remained practically stable with -1.8%.
Possible solutions
It is necessary, according to Confcommercio, to regulate the commercial offer in sensitive areas. Use with a strategic vision the Scia 2 decree and the Concorrenza 2022 law, which already allow municipalities to subject to authorisation or prohibit the establishment of 'incongruous' merchandise in historic centres and areas with a commercial vocation. It is a process aimed at protecting urban diversity in the interest of residents, which all municipalities can undertake. The Cities project proposed by the association also highlights the need to actively manage vacant premises. Through structured forms of local governance, which see the active participation of Confcommercio's territorial associations, such as the commerce districts, important paths of change can be set in motion: censuses of vacant spaces for targeted initiatives, beautification and digitisation of empty shop windows, alliances between owners and entrepreneurs to foster the rental market, temporary stores aimed at redevelopment.
