Confindustria, -0.8% impact on GDP 2027 with tariffs at 30% level

Withtariffs at 30% and the euro-dollar exchange rate at current levels, "Italian exports of goods to the US would be reduced by about 38 billion, equal to 58% of sales in the United States, 6.0% of total exports and, also considering indirect connections, 4.0% of manufacturing production". This is estimated by the Confindustria Studies Centre, which points out how "strong the net impact on GDP" would be. The impact on our economy "would be mitigated by the ability of Italian exporters to find new outlet markets and compete on non-price factors", but "overall, the level of Italian GDP in 2027 would be 0.8% lower than the baseline path.

The impact - according to the scenario analysis - would be amplified by uncertainty in transatlantic relations and the slowdown in the US economy. The estimated effect is medium to long term, i.e. in the case of permanent tariffs (and when parts of the manufacturing process could be moved to the US), because many high quality Italian products are difficult to replace in the short term, especially in large quantities. The effects of tariffs can, however, be mitigated by two aspects: the ability of Italian exporters to find new outlet markets; and the ability to compete on 'non-price' factors. According to the Centro Studi di Confindustria simulation, sales of goods to the rest of the world would increase by about 13 billion cumulatively in 2027, offsetting part of the losses in the US market. Total exports of goods would, however, fall by 4.0% and investments in machinery and equipment by 1.0%, compared to a base scenario without tariffs. "In this context of constraints on the free international exchange of goods," suggests the Study Centre, "it becomes crucial to strengthen the European single market, which is more resilient to global shocks, by reducing the internal barriers that still hinder the exchange of goods, services and capital (harmonisation of rules, strengthening of trans-European infrastructure, completion of the single capital market). It is crucial to encourage the geographical diversification of Italian trade, focusing on markets with high growth potential, such as Mercosur (destination of 7.5 billion Italian exports), India, Australia, and the Asean countries'.

Confindustria then analyses the current tariffs scenario, which is constantly evolving, and points out that 'EU countries would thus be among those most affected by the new US tariffs, on a par with China (increase of 30 points, from 21% to 51%). Many other countries are in fact subject to tariffs of 10%'. The high uncertainty, which weighs on the dollar, is then underlined. "Economic policy uncertainty in the United States has more than doubled under the Trump administration (+131% in the first half of July 2025 from December 2024 Economic Policy Uncertainty index), causing a jump in global uncertainty as well (+86%); both are at all-time highs, above the peak reached during the pandemic". Impacting on exports from Italy is the weak dollar and also the economic slowdown in the USA. A survey by the Bank of Italy is thus recalled, according to which 80% of companies whose main destination market is the USA expect a reduction in exports from the second quarter onwards.

"Complicated scenario," the monthly "flash" analysis outlines the economy and forecast. "Further announcements on US tariffs have raised uncertainty and eroded confidence," warn the economists at Via dell'Astronomia. "Together with the devalued dollar, these are bad premises for exports, consumption, investments". While "positive news comes from the partial return of oil prices, contained inflation, the path of rate cuts in the Eurozone". Meanwhile, Italian industry 'appears stagnant in the second quarter, while services are growing little'..

In May, production fell again in Italy (-0.7%), after the good figures of April and Q1. RTT had anticipated the May decline in industry (in terms of turnover) and the CSC survey in June suggested caution among companies: tariffs put manufacturing at risk again. In June, the PMI fell further into recession (48.4 from 49.2), while industrial business confidence recovered for the second month, driven by expectations.