Confindustria Research Centre: production expectations improve in July
Just under half of the companies surveyed expect production to remain stable – 41.1 per cent, compared with 47.3 per cent in June – whilst 49 per cent expect a moderate or significant increase (43.9 per cent in June)
A slight improvement in expectations: this is what emerges from the flash survey on industrial production by large companies affiliated with Confindustria. This is what emerges from the survey conducted by the association’s Research Centre in July: the proportion of firms expecting stable production has fallen, whilst the proportion expecting growth has risen. Just under half of the companies surveyed expect production to remain stable – 41.1 per cent compared with 47.3 per cent in June – whilst 49 per cent expect a moderate or significant increase (43.9 per cent in June). The proportion of respondents expecting a decline stands at 9.9%, compared with 8.8% in June.
A slight increase in June, +0.1%, is also evident from the RTT 2.0 (an index calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted and deflated turnover data from TeamSystem’s sample of client companies), with positive changes across all sectors of the economy. Thanks to this increase and that recorded in April (May had seen a fall of -0.4%), the RTT shows a slightly positive change for the second quarter of the year: +0.2% on a normalised basis. Analysing the sectors, the RTT for June indicates a slight recovery in industry, at +0.2 per cent, following the sharp decline in May.
The services sector recorded a larger increase in June, +0.7 per cent, though this was insufficient to offset the decline in May. In construction, the index rose by 0.7 per cent, following stability in the previous month. Overall, the second quarter showed a positive change for services, a slightly smaller one for construction, and a negative change for manufacturing, down 0.8 per cent.Returning to the flash survey of large enterprises, demand and orders are the main drivers of production: the balance shows strongly expansionary figures, although down on the previous survey (+9.6 per cent after +14.3 per cent in June).
In July, production costs were the most frequently cited factor holding back growth, although the net balance of responses showed a less marked decline (-4.6 per cent, following 10.6 per cent in June).Manufacturers’ expectations regarding labour availability in the coming months remain negative: the net balance for July stands at -3.5 per cent, a slight deterioration compared with June’s figure (-3.2 per cent). The balance regarding the availability of materials has improved, although it remains negative (-0.6% from -1.2%). The balance relating to financial conditions remains unchanged (-1.2%).
The assessment of plant availability has worsened, although the figure remains positive (+0.4 per cent following +1.8 per cent in June). The RTT index takes into account macro-regions and company size. June saw positive results across the board: most notably in the South, at +2.6 per cent, and in the North-East, at +1.4 per cent. The change in the second quarter was positive in the North-West and the Centre, whilst it was slightly negative in the North-East and virtually zero in the South (-0.1 per cent). The index is positive for all company size categories, with the largest increase seen among large firms following the sharp decline in May. The change in the second quarter is positive for all company sizes, with the largest increase seen among large firms.
