Banking risks and the French moves

Credit Agricole warns: ‘We’ve never been involved in the MPS-BPM deal; nothing can be done without us’

Banque Verte’s top management is putting the brakes on the proposed merger between the two Italian banks and sending a clear message to those calling the shots: ‘We are indispensable’. The preferred scenario? ‘A merger between BPM and CA Italia’

by Enrico Miele

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4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Credit Agricole’s top management is putting the brakes on merger plans between Banco Bpm and Banca Monte Paschi Siena (“it is very difficult to imagine how a merger could create value for shareholders”) and are reviving the plan to merge the Piazza Meda-based bank with their subsidiary Credit Agricole Italia, described as “the preferred scenario”. In any case, they warn that, given their stake now stands at nearly 30 per cent, “nothing can be done” without them.

When pressed by reporters during the quarterly results briefing, Agricole’s CEO, Olivier Gavalda, commented for the first time on the rumours of an imminent M&A between the two Italian banks, saying: “We have not received any plans, nor any information regarding a potential merger between MPS and BPM.” Shortly afterwards, however, a clear message came from Banque Verte: “With a 29.3 per cent stake in BPM, we are indispensable. This means that nothing can be done against us or without us. But of course, we are not the only ones making the decisions.”

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‘We haven’t yet asked the ECB for approval to take control of BPM’

“To date, we have not yet asked the ECB for authorisation to take control” of Banco BPM, clarified Credit Agricole’s deputy general manager, Clotilde L’Angevin, who was also pressed on the future of the Piazza Meda-based bank, in which the French now hold a stake of just under 30 per cent: “Ours is a solid and stable position, which allows us to be a key player in this context.” Italia, the manager continued, is “a strategic market for us”, where “we want to continue to grow”. Among other things, we have “a solid, long-standing partnership with Banco Bpm; that is why we have increased our stake to 29.3 per cent”.

From this point of view, ‘we are in a strong position’ and – echoing what the CEO of Crédit Agricole has already said – she reiterates that ‘nothing can be done without us or against us’, but to date ‘we have not received any concrete proposals regarding, for example, the situation at MPS and Banco BPM’. For Crédit Agricole, L’Angevin concludes, “what is truly important is to continue to develop in the long term in Italia”. The executive points out that the group’s operations in Italia also include Crédit Agricole Italia and, therefore, “we also want to grow organically”.

BPM-MPS? ‘It’s unlikely to create value for shareholders’

During the conference call, the issue then became a ‘hot topic’ once again. Agricole, in fact, explicitly voiced its doubts for the first time regarding a possible merger between the Piazza Meda-based bank and Monte dei Paschi: “At this stage, it is very difficult to imagine how a merger between MPS and BPM could create value for the bank’s shareholders,” clarified Crédit Agricole’s CEO, Olivier Gavalda. “Any transaction involving Banco BPM should create long-term value for Crédit Agricole and the other shareholders. With our 29.3 per cent stake, we are by far the largest shareholder and, as such, we will have a say in any transaction involving the company and will analyse any sound proposal in terms of its strategic interest, execution risk and ability to create long-term value.”

“Our preferred scenario is a merger between BPM and CA Italia”

But the French appear to have a very clear vision of the future of Piazza Meda: “Naturally, one of our preferred scenarios would be a merger between Banco Bpm and Crédit Agricole Italia, which would also allow us to strengthen our presence in Italia, where we really want to grow,” added Crédit Agricole’s deputy general manager, Clotilde L’Angevin, when pressed on the bank’s future.

Group profit of 2.78 billion in the second quarter

Whilst we await clarification on the outcome of the Italian ‘Risiko’, Credit Agricole’s board of directors has given the green light to the second-quarter results, which show a net profit attributable to the group of €2.778 billion, up +7.8% compared with the second quarter of 2025. Total revenue amounted to 10.880 billion, up by +12.9%, driven by a rise in the net interest margin of the regional banks (+38%). Operating expenses stood at -6.143 billion (+4.6%), with an EBITDA of 4.737 billion (+25.8%) and a cost-to-income ratio of 56.5% (an improvement of -4.5 points). The cost of risk stood at -862 million (+2.7%). Looking at the half-year as a whole, the group’s net profit rose to 4.875 billion (+6.8%) and by +14.5% excluding the effect of the Amundi capital gain.

In Italia, profit of 1.05 billion, revenue up 5%

In Italy, however, Credit Agricole posted a net profit of 1.053 billion euros for the half-year, of which 878 million euros were attributable to the group, “confirming Italia as the bank’s second-largest domestic market”. Focusing solely on the subsidiary Credit Agricole Italia, it closed the half-year with a consolidated net profit of 478 million, up by +2.1 per cent. On the income side, net interest income stood at €862 million (+1.8%) and commission income at €707 million (+6.9%). Operating expenses rose (+1.7%) to 787 million. Net impairment charges remained stable at 97 million, whilst the cost of credit stood at 29 basis points (-1) and the CET1 ratio stood at 13.2 per cent.

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