Cutting waiting lists in healthcare to the test of coverage. And on 19 June comes the EU verdict on the infringement procedure

The government's decision to unbundle the measures on healthcare into two measures, a seven-article decree-law with the zero-cost solutions and a 14-article bill to be approved over a longer period of time with the measures for which coverage will have to be found (from the defiscalisation of overtime to bonuses and penalties for hospital managers), still puts the issue of available resources and the so-called 'short blanket' at the centre of the debate. The executive's strategy, which was outlined in the meeting of the Council of Ministers that gave the green light to the two health measures, has aroused the perplexity of the regions, which have expressed concerns about the funds. The question of the budget to draw on is destined to become a priority again in the very near future, when the government will start thinking about the contents of the next manoeuvre.

All this will take place under the watchful eye of Brussels. In the background is in fact the new economic governance framework of the European Union. Entering into force on 30 April, it is designed to strengthen the debt sustainability of member states and promote their sustainable and inclusive growth. The next milestone in the transition to the new framework will be the presentation of theEuropean Semester spring package on 19 June, when the Commission will provide guidance to the Member States for the preparation of their national medium-term structural budget plans. These plans, which will define the Member States' budgetary targets, priority reforms and investments, must be submitted to the Commission by 20 September 2024.

19 June is therefore the date to be circled. On that day, Italy will know whether it is among those for whom an infringement procedure will be opened for a deficit above 3% of GDP. On 15 May, the European Commission revised Italy's growth expectations upwards, with the economy seen expanding by 0.9 per cent in 2024 (from 0.7 per cent in previous estimates). On that occasion on debt and government deficit it turned a spotlight instead. Because even if the deficit is seen as falling (from 7.4% of GDP in 2023 to 4.4% in 2024), for the EU it will rise again next year to 4.7% due to the slowdown in current revenues and the further increase in interest expenditure. Italy's DEF sees the trend deficit at 4.3% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. The EU then expects the debt/GDP ratio to rise from 137.3% in 2023 to 138.6% in 2024 and 141.7% in 2025. The 'less favourable interest growth differential' (the increase in rates on new issues will lead to interest weighing 4% of GDP) and the 'lagged effect' of the Superbonus incentives will weigh heavily.

As for the 'corrective' part of the new Pact, after the formal launch on 19 June of the excessive deficit procedures with the spring package, it will have to wait until the autumn package in November to see the Commission flesh out a recommendation for a return.

Speaking at the Ansa Forum, Raffaele Fitto, Minister for European Affairs, the South, Cohesion Policies and the NRP, confided: 'I see great coherence between the committee's vote and that of the FdI parliamentary delegation on the new Stability Pact because from the institutional point of view a balance has been found that has some positive elements and some that do not convince us, but a balance had to be found. Our parliamentary delegation,' he continued, 'voted because the objective, the ambition is to change it.