Altroconsumo research

Damage to businesses and the economy: households reject Trump's tariffs

9 out of 10 citizens are concerned. Majority unwilling to sacrifice EU standards to avoid them

by Luca Orlando

Più di 9 intervistati su 10 pensano che danneggeranno le imprese e l’economia, sia nazionale sia europea.

4' min read

4' min read

US tariffs? For nine out of 10 citizens there will be negative impacts. An orientation that is perhaps predictable in general terms, the one found in the survey carried out by Altroconsumo, but certainly not in these dimensions. SOndaggio - the one presented at the Trento Festival debate dedicated to new scenarios for consumers in the Trump 2.0 era, carried out in several European countries among almost 5 thousand subjects, of which over 1300 in Italy.

The outcome is unequivocal: more than 9 out of 10 respondents think that they will damage businesses and the economy, both national and European, 83% expect an increase in the cost of living, with 26% imagining it to be considerable. In Italy the percentages are only slightly lower than in other countries: 78% expect an increase in costs (for 19% it will be significant), while 17% believe that the duties will have no effect on everyday spending (a small percentage but still higher than in other countries).

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As for employment, 44% of the respondents fear a negative impact on their family's employment situation, here Italians (43%) are in line with the general figure. It should be noted that only 49% of Italians believe that there will be no impact on family employment, much less than, for example, 62% of Belgians. In all countries, worries increase among those who already face economic difficulties: in Italy, 86% of those in difficulty fear the rise in the cost of living, and 59% expect it to affect their jobs.

Respondents expect price increases in almost all product categories. At the top of the list are technology products and cars, with more than 3 out of 4 respondents anticipating increases, which are often expected to be marked. In Italy, the concerns are even more pronounced: 91% fear price increases in technology (49% considerable) and 79% in cars (36% considerable).

Only one third of the respondents consider tariffs an effective means to protect local industries. In Italy, trust in this instrument is even lower: just 22% believe it is useful. However, when it comes to policy responses, 69% of respondents are in favour of imposing counter-duties on the US, but among Italians the consensus drops to 57%.

The majority of respondents (67%) believe that it should be the EU, and not individual states, that negotiate with Washington. This view also prevails in Italy (66%), but there is more openness to bilateral agreements with the US: 23% are in favour, a small but higher percentage than in other countries.

However, citizens are not willing to sacrifice EU standards in order to obtain the removal of tariffs: a majority opposes the relaxation of rules on environmental sustainability (60%), digital security (76%) and food safety (80%). Italians are even more intransigent: 66%, 82% and 88% respectively oppose any compromise, with the highest percentage on food safety.

Finally, a gender fact; women (especially in Italy) are particularly inflexible about environmental standards: only 10% would agree to lower them, while 24% of men would be willing to do so.

"The trade war between the United States and Europe", explains Federico Cavallo, Head of Public Affairs & Media Relations Altroconsumopreoccupies Italians rightly, especially those families who find it harder to make ends meet. What emerges from our survey is a great awareness among citizens of what duties are and what negative consequences they could bring to businesses and citizens. This also leads Italians to point to greater cohesion among EU countries as a solution to the uncertain relations with the US, as well as to the signing of new trade agreements with other countries in the world to diversify the markets for the supply of raw materials and the sale of European products. It is also reassuring to see how few people are willing to give up on European policies to protect privacy, the environment, transparency and above all food safety. Finally, the clear message from the Italians and other European citizens involved in the survey is that only by remaining united and truly implementing a single European market will we succeed in remaining competitive and productive".

How to move within this framework? And what will be the drop-off point in negotiations?

For Brando Benifei, Pd MEP and head of the European Parliament's delegation for EU-US relations, the announcement of 50% tariffs made a few days ago by Trump is above all a negotiating forcing, to be assessed without panic.

"With regard to Washington," he explains, "we have 'cards' that hurt badly, particularly in the world of big-tech and services. That's why European negotiators should act with cold blood and steady nerves. Trump is in a hurry, because from the meetings I had recently in the USa number of Republican representatives fear for their re-election and will only give the presidency a few months before taking other positions. And Trump, aware of the narrow majority margin in both the Senate and the House, is aware of the risks'.

But beyond the outcome in terms of tariffs and rates, will Trump succeed in relaunching manufacturing in the US with these moves? "In the short term and even emedi will be difficult," explains economist Giancarlo Corò, "because this is not a reversal that can be easily made, given the deindustrialisation trend of recent decades. The US big tech companies themselves, starting with Apple, have decided to go and produce elsewhere. What is certain is that in this narrative on tariffs, the great absentee is the consumer, about whom Trump seems not to care. On prices we will see but what is certain is that the effects on growth are already evident now, because uncertainty is an eevident brake on both investments and some consumption'.

 

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