Data centres, a supply chain that could be worth 200 billion and 8% of GDP by 2030

A supply chain worth oover 200 billion by 2030 (compared to 60 billion today), with a weight on the GDP close to 8% (up from 2.8%) and which could contribute up to 15% of the economy's growth by 2035, enabling over 150 thousand jobs and recovering waste heat, effectively decarbonised, sufficient to meet the needs of 800 thousand households. With Milan and Lombardy in pole position to become a new strategic European hub. This is, in a nutshell, the potential development path of the Italian 'Data Economy' described by the position paper "The Italy of Data Centres. Energy, efficiency, sustainability for the digital transition" produced by TEHA Group in collaboration with A2A and to be presented today at the Cernobbio Forum by the group's top management, CEO Renato Mazzoncini and chairman Roberto Tasca, and TEHA senior partner Lorenzo Tavazzi.

Beyond piling up cold numbers - medium-term projections are always subject to fluctuations and surprises (positive or negative) - the aim of the study is to demonstrate a very precise concept. That is, that facing the challenges posed by the rapid expansion of the Data Economy (of which the boom in requests for connection to Terna is only the tip of the iceberg) with an integrated strategic planning, can enable sustainable development, making data centres not only strategic technological infrastructures, but real enablers of social and economic environmental benefits, and thus able to actively contribute to the system by producing energy and reducing consumption and emissions. The challenge, in essence, is to succeed in transforming highly energy-intensive facilities (by 2035 they could reach 4% of global electricity consumption, 13% in Italy) into allies of urban sustainability. As well as to find solutions to avoid possible negative repercussions on the energy transition, given that strong electrification cannot be satisfied with renewables alone but brings back into vogue the new high-efficiency gas combined cycles, and to remedy the very high consumption of water (still with few solutions) and land consumption, which can be alleviated by using brownfield areas.

The premise of the position paper is that the numbers point to a very strong growth path for data centres. Admittedly, there are some signs of overheating, if it is true that in recent weeks both Sam Altman and MIT have highlighted an excess of euphoria about the world of AI, the pillar of the data economy. However, the expansion of global connectivity has now turned data centres themselves into indispensable infrastructures for digital services, information flow management and communications security.

In Italy, it is estimated that by 2035 the installed power could reach 2.3 GW in a trend scenario and 4.6 GW in a 'full potential' perspective (compared to 513 MW at the end of 2024): as a result, the related electricity consumption is expected to be between 7% and 13% of the national total. A fast pace of development that, according to the study, would have a significant economic impact. If in 2024 the Italian data economy was worth 60.6 billion, or 2.8% of GDP, only by reaching the best performers among European countries could it reach 207 billion by 2030. The development of the sector could contribute to the annual growth of GDP: the estimate ranges from 6% in the trend scenario to 15% in the full development scenario, with the enabling of 77 thousand and 150 thousand direct, indirect and induced jobs respectively.

 In this scenario, our country evidently has greater growth margins than the great historic European hubs (Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin) which are showing signs of saturation for various reasons and constraints. And so, the numbers say it all, Milan (which is climbing the list of European capitals) and Lombardy are establishing themselves as strategic poles, attracting the growing interest of investors.