Markets

Stock Exchange, Europe bets on easing tensions in Iran. In Milan (+1.9%) Lottomatica flies, down Mps

The market is questioning the duration of the war in the Middle East and is starting to recover ground by pricing in a short scenario and betting on possible diplomatic channels. Oil and gas prices down after rally, gold and silver up. In Piazza Affari +15% for Lottomatica still in the wake of the accounts, weak Mediobanca and Mps

by Chiara Di Cristofaro

4 March 2026

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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The European stocks closed near the day's highs in a session in which the market decided to bet on a possible easing of tension in Iran, helped also by the good performance of Wall Street, where the Nasdaq is particularly in evidence. After two sessions of weakness, the stock markets all closed on a positive note and Milan, with a 1.95 per cent gain, regained the 45,000-point mark (at 45,336). Stimulating the purchases are the rumours, even if denied by the parties, that Iran is trying to re-establish a diplomatic channel with the United States to limit the escalation of the war. Against this backdrop, energy prices are falling, with most analysts currently of the view that there will not be a major energy crisis. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, and traffic blocked, but US President Donald Trump has announced that if necessary the US will escort all oil tankers into the strait.

"We are witnessing a large-scale regional conflict - however, the initial dynamics of the war imply only a temporary increase in energy prices and the attractiveness of safe haven assets, with a partial normalisation within a few weeks," comments Elliot Hentov, chief macro policy strategist at State Street. For the expert, "it is difficult to see how Iran can maintain this level of firepower for more than 2-3 weeks, assuming it can. Therefore, the risk is largely concentrated in the next 5-10 days and in Iran's ability to cause material damage to energy infrastructure, morale in the Gulf countries, and the political will of the United States."

Wall Street closes higher as crude oil price falls

Wall Street closed positive, with investors watching developments in the US-Israeli war against Iran. The Dow Jones rose 0.51% to 48,746.52 points, the Nasdaq gained 1.31% to 22,811.78 points and the S&P 500 advanced 0.79% to 6,870.57. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Cnbc that the US will make "a series of announcements" to support the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf. On Tuesday 3 March, President Donald Trump said the US would provide defence for oil tankers in the Gulf and that the US Navy would escort them through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. The announcement placated oil prices, which fell for the first time since the start of the conflict.

On the macro front, a number of encouraging data on the US economy came in: in particular, the Services Ism (up 53.8 points to 56.1) which showed that activity in the sector in February continued to expand and the US private sector jobs which exceeded estimates last month.

On the stock, Moderna's stock is rallying after the biotechnology company said it agreed to pay up to $2.25 billion to settle a lawsuit with Biopharma Corp. and Genevant Sciencesa related to a patent for a Covid vaccine. CrowdStrike Holdings stock is down, despite a better-than-expected outlook for the first quarter and full year. Weighing down Abercrombie & Fitch after the clothing retailer reported mixed fourth quarter results, with higher than expected earnings but a disappointing outlook.

Mps slips in Piazza Affari, Lottomatica sprints

On the Milanese stock market, Lottomatica (+14.95%) had a second banner day. After the 3.3% jump on the eve of the event, analysts still reward the 2025 accounts, considered "very solid", and the 2026 guidance. "Investor returns are improving. The group continues to evaluate M&A opportunities, on which it takes a highly selective approach," explains Intermonte, which appreciates the company's "continuous process of debt reduction". Prysmian (+4.52%) also ended on a positive note, with Citi analysts upgrading the target price from Euro 102 to Euro 113 per share and confirming the 'buy' rating, while Fineco (+0.13%) made a more modest progress after the 2029 plan.

After a weak start, Italgas closed at +0.77% on the day of the experts' promoted accounts. On the opposite front, Mediobanca (-1.58%) and Mps (-1.2%) had a red day. According to sources close to the dossier, there would not be the name of the CEO, Luigi Lovaglio, in the list presented to the Mps board of directors that must decide on the composition by qualified majority.

Outside the main list, the market welcomes Maire's accounts (+6.79%), with revenues and Ebitda above expectations and a higher dividend (proposed coupon of 0.585 per share, +64.3% compared to what was paid a year ago). Guidance for the current year was also appreciated, with revenues between 7.5 and 7.7 billion, ebitda 545 and 575 million and a margin of -7.3 to 7.5%. Also Ariston jumped in the wake of the quarterly report with numbers in line with estimates and profitability - described by Banca Akros as "slightly better than expected".

Oil stops running, down goes gas

Energy prices are reversing course, with glimmers of a reopening of the diplomatic channel between the US and Iran. According to the New York Times, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence has contacted the CIA via another country's spy agency to discuss a possible end to the conflict. Despite the failure from Theran and Washington, the news contributed to easing the tension on the energy markets and slowing down the oil price: the Brent dropped to around 81 dollars, while the Wti fell below 75.

In the meantime, in Amsterdam also gas fell 10% below the EUR 50 per megawatt hour threshold. In general, beyond the successful outcome of the negotiations, traders bet on a quick end to the conflict, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth assuring in the afternoon that the US will take control of Iranian skies within a week.

Borsa a metà seduta

Gold rises again, dollar falls slightly. Bitcoin rallying

The currency market continued to move at the mercy of the news coming out of the Middle East, with the emerging markets under pressure once again and a generalised appreciation of the greenback. The euro/dollar exchange rate, after pushing into the 1.15 area on the eve of the session, rebounded by trading back above the 1.16 area.

Spot gold is up more than a percentage point, above $5,100 an ounce, and Bitcoin is moving more than 7 per cent above $73,000.

Btp-Bund spread down to 68 points

The BTp-Bund spread closed lower at the end of a session that marked a sharp recovery in yields after the eve's weakness in the secondary market. At the end of the day, the yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp and the German Bund of the same duration stood at 68 basis points, down from 72 points at Tuesday's close. The yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp also fell, to 3.43% from 3.39% at the previous benchmark.