Confindustria: 'If the war lasts until the end of the year, we risk the worst energy crisis in history'
Hearings before the Budget Committees of the House and Senate on the Public Finance Document. Employers' association: 'Deviation for proportionate aid to companies and extension of excise duty'. Anci: "Strong criticality Dpf, at risk the tightness of municipal budgets". Labour consultants: cut tax burden or brain drain
Key points
- Confindustria: 'Vulnerable on energy, need strategy like Pnrr and emergency plan'
- "With partial or total closure Hormuz global autonomy 6-11 months"
- "EU institutions inadequate but alone we would be weaker"
- Cgil: with inflation estimate at 2.9%, workers risk losing another EUR 1,500
- Cisl: insufficient measures for crisis in the Dfp, risks for wages and pensions worry
- Uil: disproportionate taxation on employees and pensioners
- Confesercenti: risk of endemic no-growth condition
- Anci: "Finance document 2026 has a worsening trend"
- "Strong Dpf criticality, municipal budgets at risk"
- Upi: deviation to support social spending and investments
- Confprofessions: focus on training, research and aggregations
- Employment consultants: cut tax burden or brain drain
"If it were to end today, the impact of the war would be worth 0.1-0.3 percentage points of lost growth", but if the war were to drag on until the end of the year, there would be a risk of experiencing "the most serious energy crisis in history with systemic impacts". This was emphasised by the director of the Study Centre of Confindustria, Alessandro Fontana, during a hearing at the budget committees of the House and Senate on the Public Finance Document (Dfp).
In addition to Confindustria, the Cgil, Cisl, Uil, Confesercenti, Confprofessioni, Consulenti del Lavoro, Anci and Upi, among others, spoke before the joint committees on Monday 27 April.
Confindustria: "Vulnerable on energy, need strategy like Pnrr and emergency plan"
"Our main vulnerability is energy and it will remain so for another few years: it is important now - as this is the second time it has happened in a few years - to ground a strategy to overcome it that is milestone and target-based, such as the Pnrr, setting timeframes and targets, otherwise we risk finding ourselves many more times in situations like this one even if this one were to resolve itself in the best possible way," said Fontana, who also suggested "a contingency plan, because reaction times count a lot, to be able to deal with an emergency with a set" of interventions.
"With partial or total closure Hormuz global autonomy 6-11 months"
"Both partial and total closure of the Strait of Hormuz allow for a global range of 6 to 11 months, 2 of which have already passed," said the director of the Confindustria Studies Centre at the Dfb hearing in Parliament, illustrating the two scenarios analysed of 80% and 100% closure of the Strait. Mr Fontana spoke of a 'very peculiar general picture because we are in a war situation that puts a very important share of world oil at risk. If the war lasts until June, we risk an increase in costs of about 7 billion, if it lasts until the end of the year, we reach almost 7.6 per cent, an increase of almost 21 billion,' he said. "The duration of this war is crucial, if it is short it can be managed, otherwise if it lasts longer" everything would be "more problematic with the risk of becoming a systemic crisis," Fontana said. "Some indication we are already having it on the March data: inflation in Italia rose by 0.2 points, a positive element, but as we have already seen in 2022, in Italia inflation rises a little more with difficulty but then it also rises to higher levels" than the rest of Europe.
"Deviation for proportionate business aid and extension of excise duty"


