Purchases on Diasorin, anticipation rises for Capital Markets Day

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- Diasorin is trading in positive territory, in a declining Ftse Mib, held back by the ex-dividend of several big names, including Diasorin itself, which pay an ordinary annual dividend of €1.30 per share. The coupon, up 8% year-on-year and totalling some EUR 66.5 million, had been approved by the shareholders' meeting on 29 April. Beyond the performance, however, the market's attention is already focused on the Capital Markets Day on 20 May, when the company is expected to lift the veil on its future strategy and, in particular, its 2027-2030 targets. "We believe there is pressure on management ahead of the May 20 CMD in Milan to reduce the risk associated with investors' expectations on second-half growth, after first-quarter results were lacklustre," stress Barclays analysts, who confirm their 'underweight' rating and target price of EUR 60 per share against around EUR 70.8 at present, pointing out that in the first period of the year 'turnover was put under pressure by the fact that the flu season was not particularly severe and by the one-off downsizing of inventories. However, these factors were offset by the gradual ramp-up of orders in the Ltg division and the good reception of Liaison Nes'. The group ended 1Q2025 with revenue of EUR 287m (-3% at constant exchange rates and -8% at current exchange rates), while net profit was EUR 38m, down 28% (13% as a percentage of revenue). Adjusted ebitda was EUR 90 million, (-13% at constant exchange rates and -16% at current exchange rates). These numbers were below analysts' expectations, but allowed Diasorin to confirm its estimates for the financial year 2026 of revenue growth of between +5% and +6% and an adjusted ebitda margin of between 32%-33%. It remains to be seen whether these outlooks will be confirmed during the Investor Day and, above all, what the indications for the medium-term future will be. "We await further details on how the company intends to realise its revenue forecast for the second half of the year. We update our forecasts for the period 2027-2030 with a Cagr of sales at constant exchange rates of 7.1% and an adjusted Ebitda Cagr of 8%, with an expected Ebitda margin for 2030 of 32.6% (virtually unchanged from 2026), as we expect operating leverage to be offset by a negative margin mix as the Molecular business will outperform the Immunodiagnostics business," Barclays explains, saying it expects Diasorin to "target a similar adjusted Ebitda margin of 32%-33% as in fiscal 2026."