Latvia: Russia could exploit superiority in drones to threaten the Baltic States by 2028

Concerns relate in particular to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are considered among the Alliance's most vulnerable areas due to their geographical proximity to Russia and the logistical difficulties that a defence of them would entail in the event of a crisis.

Other European security officials also believe that the Kremlin may be tempted to act before the Western military build-up fully kicks in. A senior defence official from a frontline NATO country noted that, from the Russian perspective, there may be incentives to move sooner, both due to uncertainty about the evolution of US policy after the Trump presidency and increased European military spending.

The war in Ukraine today represents the main laboratory of military innovation. Both sides deploy thousands of drones on a daily basis, ranging from low-cost models intended for tactical attacks to long-range autonomous systems capable of striking targets hundreds of kilometres from the front line.

According to Pudāns, the experience accumulated by Russian forces on the ground allowed for continuous experimentation and rapid refinement of new technologies. "Both Ukraine and Russia have a different sense of urgency," he explained. "They are innovating and developing new solutions faster and testing them directly on the battlefield."

The advantage gained in the field could prove relevant in a possible confrontation with NATO. Alliance forces, in fact, have fewer drones and much less operational experience. In a recent British army exercise simulating a conflict in Estonia, commanders assumed that drone stocks would be exhausted in less than a week.

Pudāns also warns against underestimating the nature of future conflicts. "I do not believe that either Russia or Ukraine started this war with the intention of fighting in this way," he noted, referring to the transformation of the conflict into a war of attrition characterised by the massive use of unmanned systems.

Although NATO maintains an overall conventional superiority, especially in the air sector, the general believes that the Alliance still needs to catch up in defence spending, industrial capacity expansion and the deployment of new military capabilities along the eastern front.

At the moment, the Latvian commander points out, Russia does not have the necessary forces for a large conventional invasion while the military engagement in Ukraine continues. However, a different scenario could quickly emerge should the conflict come to an end.

More immediate, however, appears to be the threat of hybrid operations, including sabotage, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns. "We live under the assumption that some form of aggression could occur as early as tonight," Pudāns concluded.