Due to a declared fault claim in 2025, the merit class of more than 500,000 motorists will deteriorate

Bad news for more than 500,000 Italian motorists; according to the Observatory by Facile.it there are many policyholders who, due to a fault claim declared in 2025, will see their merit class worsen this year, with a related increase in the cost of third-party motor liability insurance.

On the insurance rates front, the data from the Facile.it observatory highlighted that, in December 2025, the average premium for motor liability calculated in Italy was 629.24 euro; an increase of 1.51% compared to 6 months ago (when it was 619.90 euro), but a decrease of 2.27% when compared to the value recorded in December 2024 (643.86 euro). "Although contained compared to the past, in the last six months rates have shown an upward trend - explains Andrea Ghizzoni, managing director of Insurance at Facile.it - The2026 instead opens with positive signs: the drop in the frequency of claims, for example, could lead to greater stability on the price front, even if there are some clouds on the horizon. The average value of claims is still high and weighs heavily on the accounts of insurance companies, and the increase in tax on roadside assistance and driver accident guarantees could, on the other hand, push up the final bill'.

On the one hand, therefore, the year 2026 is off to a good start, starting with the fall in the proportion of negligent claims declared by motorists, which, according to Facile.it's analysis, has fallen by 14% compared to the previous year; on the other hand, however, motorists will have to reckon with the increase in the tax on ancillary guarantees for driver accidents and roadside assistance, which as from 1 January 2026 rises to 12.5%.

While at national level the percentage of motorists reporting a culpable accident in 2025 is 1.54 per cent, when looking at the sample on a regional basis significant differences emerge. Scrolling down the list of areas with the highest percentage of reported at-fault accidents, in first place comes Liguria, where 2.06% of motorists will see their third-party motor liability premiums rise this year. This is followed by drivers from Marche (2.01%) and Sardinia (1.96%). The lowest percentages, on the other hand, were found in Calabria (0.89%), Basilicata (1.20%) and Friuli-Venezia Giulia (1.22%). Limiting the analysis to Italian provinces, Fermo (2.84%) is the one with the highest percentage of reported claims with fault, ahead of Imola (2.54%) and Cagliari (2.53%); Vercelli is the one with the fewest insurance claims with fault (0.51%), followed by Pordenone (0.59%) and Reggio Calabria (0.65%).

Interesting data emerges when analysing the profile of those who will see their merit class deteriorate following a fault claim; looking at the sex of the insured, for example, it emerges that the percentage is higher among women (1.74%) than among men (1.42%). Breaking down the sample on the basis of age, on the other hand, it emerges that the percentage of motorists who have reported a culpable accident tends to rise as their age increases; with the exception of the 35-44 age group, which was the lowest (1.23%), the percentage gradually rises from 1.40% among 19-24 year olds to 1.73% among motorists aged 65-74, and even to 2.24% among the over 75s. Lastly, looking at the profession of the insured, it emerges that commercial agents were the category that, in percentage terms, most frequently declared a claim at fault (3.51%) and will therefore see their third party motor liability premiums rise. This is followed by pensioners (1.86%) and office workers (1.82%).