Duties, drugs in Trump's crosshairs risk investment flight from the EU

European pharmaceutical companies are sounding a loud and clear alarm bell in Brussels: either Europe reverses course on bureaucracy and patent protection, or else, with the spectre of American duties, investments will flee overseas, to the extent that investments of EUR 16.5 billion planned for the coming months are already at risk and could exceed EUR 100 billion between now and 2029. Donald Trump has just returned to announce "major tariffs on pharmaceutical imports", unleashing a new shower of sales on pharmaceutical stocks: Recordati (-6.8%) collapsed on the Milan Stock Exchange, while Novo Nordisk plummeted (-7.6%) on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange, as did Roche (-6.8%) and Novartis (-8.4%) in Zurich.

At the moment, the sector is still one of the few excluded from the axe of duties decided by the US president, who has, however, complained about the fact that the United States no longer produces its own drugs, also pointing out the disparities in the prices that other countries pay for medicines: hence the announcement of the imminent arrival of customs barriers for pharmaceuticals as well. And just yesterday European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen received representatives of the pharmaceutical industry, starting with Efpia (the federation of EU industries), Medicines for Europe (the producers of generic-equivalents), EuropaBio, European Confederation of Pharmaceutical Entrepreneurs (Eucope) and companies such as Novo Nordisk, the Danish group that has recorded a huge jump in revenues from sales in the US of its drug used to treat diabetes and severe obesity, as well as Novartis, Fresenius, Sanofi, Bayer, Gedeon Richter, Ipsen and Chiesi for Italy. On the table were proposals to identify the most effective EU response to the measures threatened by Washington that would damage both sides of the Atlantic, with implications for globally interconnected supply chains and the availability of medicines for patients, European and US, who could face shortages. The European Pharma leadership therefore called on the EU Commission to strengthen the single market by tackling regulatory barriers and supporting innovative industries by, for example, simplifying procedures, in particular for clinical trials and the digitisation of the European healthcare system. And above all by enhancing the protection of intellectual property of medicines. These actions could see the light quickly with the next initiatives to be presented by Beuxelles, in particular the EU Biotech Act and the strategies for the bio-economy and life sciences. "The Commission must react to this situation, first of all by aiming for zero to zero tariffs with the US. But then it is crucial that we change course in Europe's drug strategy to attract investment and expertise, first of all by extending the patent to 12-13 years, thus becoming even more competitive with the United States and China," warns Marcello Cattani, president of Farmindustria. He also calls for a reform of the EU Medicines Agency: 'The Ema must have the mandate to guarantee a faster evaluation of drugs, as the national agencies must also do, and then fast and effective industrial incentives for innovation, the opposite of the current Ipcei. It is time to take more risks, courage is needed'.

A survey conducted last week by Efpia, to which 18 large and medium-sized international innovative companies responded, identified up to 85 per cent of investment in capital expenditure - some EUR 50.6 billion - and up to 50 per cent of R&R expenditure (some EUR 52.6 billion) potentially at risk. A total bill, in short, of more than 100 billion at risk out of a current combined total of EUR 164.8 billion of planned investments for the period 2025-2029 in Europe Over the next three months, companies estimate that a total of 16.5 billion, or 10% of total investment plans, are already at risk. Already the US outperforms Europe in every parameter taken into account by investors: from capital availability to intellectual property, from approval speed to innovation rewards