Heatwave as El Niño intensifies: above-average temperatures set to continue until October

El Niño is tightening its grip on the global climate: according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), this periodic climatic phenomenon officially began last June is continuing to strengthen, and will come to dominate the global climate during the period August and October 2026.

The main consequences will be a greater likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the world and significant changes in rainfall. The impact of the phenomenon on Europe, however, remains indirect and limited compared with other parts of the world, such as Central and South America, which is likely to be the hardest hit. The absence of a link between El Niño and the current heatwave affecting Italia and parts of the European continent is also confirmed by Edoardo Ferrara of 3Bmeteo: “The northward movement and strengthening of the African high-pressure system is closely linked to the pattern of atmospheric circulation across the Euro-Atlantic region, which, in our part of the world, is not directly influenced by El Niño, but by a series of other factors that, at most, interact with it. Put simply,” says Ferrara, “we could have experienced such a hot summer even without its presence. El Niño, however, contributes to making the world warmer, fostering a general pattern conducive to heatwaves.”

Furthermore, according to the WMO, a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast. This is a climatic phenomenon relating to the temperature difference in the waters of the Indian Ocean: during the positive phase, the waters in the western part are warmer than average, whilst those in the eastern part are cooler. This factor, together with El Niño, can amplify the climatic impact in that part of the world, increasing the risk of droughts, floods and wildfires.

“El Niño isn’t just on the horizon: it’s already here and it’s driving up the temperature,” says the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres. “And this is just the start. El Niño is intensifying, fuelling a planet already ablaze with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and seas reaching record temperatures. Fossil fuels,” continues Guterres, “are fanning the flames of this crisis: their expansion must stop. If we do not act to protect people and tackle the root cause of the crisis, the dangers will become even more deadly.”