Emissions down 28.7% since 1990. NRP, 34% of resources disbursed

Italian ecological transition risks not respecting the roadmap set at European and national level. This is what emerges from the report 'Zero Carbon Policy Agenda 2025' by the Energy & Strategy School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano - anticipated in Sole 24 Ore è - which analyses the state of progress of the Pniec (National Energy Plan) and Fit for 55 targets, comparing them with investments, emission trends and economic impacts. Despite the 28.7 per cent drop in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 and investments of 101 billion euro in 2024 on renewables, energy efficiency, infrastructure and sustainable mobility, Italy lags behind its main EU competitors in terms of both GDP growth and efficiency of the production system. The reduction in emissions has been accompanied by a lower economic growth than the EU average (46% vs. 63% from 2005 to 2024), a sign that the drop in national emission intensity derives mainly from a crisis of energy-hungry industries, rather than from a technological leap forward.

According to Davide Chiaroni, deputy director of Energy & Strategy and head of the report, the real issue is the decreasing marginal effectiveness of investments: "It is not that the first investments were more productive in absolute terms, but they attacked the problem starting from the simplest solutions. As we move towards the zero target, it is natural that the cost of removing additional tonnes of CO2 increases: we need to act on more complex and expensive areas, such as CO2 storage and sequestration, technologies that are still very expensive'. This dynamic, according to Chiaroni, 'is common to the whole of Europe, but in Italy a certain inefficiency in the use of public resources has been added, just think of the Superbonus and the Pnrr: many resources available, but used with effort and little effect'.

The report's Policy Agenda identifies ten pillars: renewables, energy efficiency, grid infrastructure, sustainable mobility, energy communities, circular economy, carbon markets, CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage), nuclear and cross-cutting measures. For each pillar, regulatory and operational proposals are outlined. Among the key measures: the compulsory pre-feasibility study on renewable readiness for building renovations, the introduction of transparent parameters (such as the ratio CO2/euro invested), new tools for access to credit, the digitalisation of consumption through smart meters, the promotion of energy communities, the strengthening of research in the nuclear sector and the simplified application of the Corporate sustainability reporting directive to SMEs.

At the national level, the NRP has allocated 79.6 billion across seven pillars, but only 34 per cent of the resources have been disbursed. The average rate of progress is 21%. The situation is better on the reform front, where 87% of the planned targets have been achieved.

The report is blunt: 'Some 2030 targets are not achievable. Instead, we need to set more realistic targets and accelerate the pace'. Chiaroni identifies as concrete levers 'renewables and energy efficiency: these are the two areas that are numerically heaviest and most attackable with corrective measures. We need a clear and stable development trajectory, with tax instruments that can be used by businesses and citizens, recovering, for example, the mechanism of the discount on the invoice in a more sustainable version'.