Energy: a bill of 58 billion in 2026. The cut in excise duties has cost over 1 billion

Italia’s energy bill is set to rise to €57.7 billion in 2026, €9 billion more than the figure reached in 2025. This is the estimate put forward by UNEM (the Energy Union for Mobility) during its annual meeting, whilst for the oil sector the figure stands at around €24 billion, €4.5 billion more than the previous year, based on an assumed average price of $90 per barrel over the year.

The association’s president, Gianni Murano, provided a detailed overview of the situation; during his speech, he emphasised that the growth in energy demand is set to continue over the coming decades. “Estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA),” explained the head of UNEM, “indicate that, by 2050, total energy demand will be 38% higher than in 2010. And that, by that date, oil and gas will still account for 45% of the overall energy mix, compared to the current 50%. In particular,” Murano added, “oil will remain at levels similar to current ones (around 100 million barrels a day).” As for renewables, the UNEM president said, ‘they are supplementary to traditional energy sources; they do not automatically replace them’.

Murano then turned his attention to the effects of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pointing out that, within a matter of weeks, ‘significant volumes had been lost: this amounts to around 16 million barrels of oil per day and 3.8 million barrels of refined products, representing 35% and 20% respectively of global flows of oil and finished products transported by sea’. Asia was hit hardest (receiving over 80%), whilst Europe received around 6 per cent.

The picture for Europe is mixed. Murano places particular emphasis on the deindustrialisation policies pursued by the Old Continent, which has cut its refining capacity by 20% since 2009 following the closure of 30 of the 100 refineries on its territory. And this, he explains, ‘has resulted in greater dependence on imports of refined products, as is the case in Germany, France and the United Kingdom, which in fact have a deficit. In others, such as Italy, the situation has remained more balanced, but is nonetheless part of an overall context that remains fragile’.

Turning to our country, the system has shown resilience and a significant capacity to adapt: Italian energy demand in 2025 stood at just under 140 million toe, down 1.6% on 2024. Gas reached its highest level in the last three years (63.4 billion cubic metres, +2%), regaining its position as the leading energy source with a share of around 37 per cent. Meanwhile, the decline in fossil fuels continued (-14%). And, on the supply front, the country has expanded the number of supplier countries and the varieties of crude oil imported, with Libya remaining the leading supplier (accounting for 27%).