Asia

India-Pakistan escalation after Kashmir attack: mutual expulsions and closed border

Drastically reduced diplomatic representations. New Delhi suspends the Indus Water Treaty. Islamabad closes airspace to Indian companies

by Marco Masciaga

Un gruppo di sostenitori della Pakistan Markazi Muslim League (Pmml) manifestano contro l’India a Lahore, in Pakistan

3' min read

3' min read

From our correspondent

NEW DELHI - Relations between India and Pakistan are rapidly plummeting to their lowest level in several years, following the attack in the portion of Kashmir administered by New Delhi in which 26 civilians, almost all Indian tourists, lost their lives on Tuesday. In the last 48 hours, the two nuclear powers have further downsized their diplomatic representations, started the process of expelling their respective citizens, closed the only still active border, blocked trade and questioned a number of bilateral agreements. But above all, they started exchanging accusations and threats in tones not unlike those that usually prelude military actions.

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The attack in Pahalgam, a tourist resort in the Indian Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, was claimed by the Resistance Front, a group born in 2019 from a rib of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the formation behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks that New Delhi considers linked to the Pakistani security apparatus. According to the reconstruction of the Indian security forces, a commando allegedly opened fire with assault rifles at a group of tourists. The Indian police named three suspects, including two Pakistani citizens, describing them as LeT members.

New Delhi retaliation

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In an unprecedented move, New Delhi responded to the attack by announcing the unilateral suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, the agreement that has regulated river water management between the two countries since 1960 and which had survived two wars. Any reduction in water flows from India to Pakistan would have serious, though not immediate, consequences for Islamabad's agricultural and energy system. Above all, says a Pakistani government statement, it would be regarded as 'an act of war to be responded to with the utmost force'. For the time being, Islamabad has responded to New Delhi's unilateral decision by closing its airspace to Indian airlines.

The Indian chargé d'affaires in Islamabad is expected to be summoned to the Pakistani Foreign Ministry in the coming hours. After a previous downgrade in diplomatic relations, the two countries are no longer represented by high commissioners - figures that are equivalent to ambassadors among Commonwealth countries - but by diplomats of lower rank and less room for manoeuvre.

Modi's promise

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In his first public speech after Tuesday's attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised yesterday that the perpetrators of the attack will be hit 'harder than they can imagine'. After which - switching from Hindi to English and thus addressing an audience that is not only domestic - he added, without ever mentioning Pakistan, that 'India will identify, hunt down and punish all terrorists and those who give them support'. Islamabad's Defence Minister Kawaja Asif announced that 'should India carry out terrorist acts in our cities, we will respond'.

India, uomini armati uccidono almeno 26 turisti in un resort nel Kashmir

The political context

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Tuesday's incident was the worst attack on civilians in recent years in the region disputed between the two countries and the scene of an anti-Indian rebellion for more than 30 years. Jammu and Kashmir is an Indian territory - administered partly locally and partly by the government in New Delhi - that has been at the centre of disputes between India, Pakistan and a large part of the local population of Muslim faith for decades. In 2019, the Modi government abrogated the constitutional provision that granted it a greater degree of autonomy than the other states in the union, paving the way for the 'downgrade' from State to Territory, a type of administrative unit over which the federal government exercises more stringent control.

Making predictions about possible Indian reprisals is not easy, but there is a precedent. In February 2019, when Modi was already ruling in India, 4o Indian paramilitaries were killed in an attack in Jammu and Kashmir and New Delhi responded 12 days later with an air raid on an alleged training camp of Jaish-e-Mohammed, an anti-Indian formation that had claimed the attack. At the time, general elections in India were only a few months away, making a muscular response from New Delhi all the more politically inevitable.

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