EU, from M5S in the Left to Salvini's manoeuvres: how party alliances change

First there was the entry of the M5S into the European Left group, the same as Sinistra Italiana (allies of the PD) led by Nicola Fratoianni. On the other, the possible entry of the League into the new Patriots group launched by the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban. The European alliances of the Italian parties are becoming increasingly complicated: in government together with Rome, Fdi, Lega and Fi each have their own European house (often also in conflict with each other). The same goes for the centre-left, where divisions between parties are overlaid by divisions in the European parliament.

The 5 Star Movement has announced its entry into the European Left group (The Left), certifying its progressive turn and ending a long hunt for a de facto European house that began with the birth of the movement co-founded by Beppe Grillo. By many, the move was interpreted as Giuseppe Conte's desire to build a broad camp with Elly Schlein and the PD: in the Left's Strasbourg group, there are the MEPs of Sinistra Italiana, Ilaria Salis and Mimmo Lucano. Sinistra Italiana presented itself at the European elections in the list Alleanza Verdi Sinistra (in Italy allied with the PD) even though the Green component will merge into the European group of the same name. It must be said, however, that the entry of the M5S into the Group of the European Left coincided with the announcement of the rejection of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the EU Commission. This is a strong divide from the PD, which will instead vote for von der Leyen.

The Democratic Party is firmly within the European Socialist Party, together with the German SPD of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Therefore, it will (re)vote Ursula von der Leyen president of the EU Commission, following the agreement between the European People's Party, the European Socialists and the liberal democrats of Renew Europe (of which the movement of the French president Emmanuel Macron is also a member). In order to secure his candidacy, von der Leyen is also negotiating with the European Greens and the European Conservatives and Reformists group of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, although on this last opening the Pd has made a wall.

In the centre-right, the situation has become very complicated in recent days. What has shaken things up is the birth of the Patriots group promoted by the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party (until 2021 in the European People's Party from which he left due to his excessively sovereignist positions, joining the Non-Members' Group). Among others, the Spaniards of Vox will join the Movement, leaving the European Conservatives and Reformists group of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Also joining the Patriots could be the League of Matteo Salvini and the Rassemblement national of Marine Le Pen, as well as the Dutch (now governing) right wing of Geert Wilders. All three of these parties were within the European Identity and Democracy group (from which the Germans of Afd were expelled for ambiguous statements about the SS and relations with Russia), which at this point could disband

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Fratelli d'Italia have the de facto leading role within their historic European group, the European Conservatives and Reformists (of which the British Conservatives were also members before Brexit). But with the exit of Vox and the buying campaign of the Patriots group, the Conservatives and Reformists could fall from the rung of the third largest group in Strasbourg after the EPP and the ESDP: they could not only be overtaken by the new Patriots group, but also by the Liberal Democrats of Renew Europe. On the one hand, the exit of the right-wing Vox (invisible to the socialists) makes the negotiation with von der Leyen less complicated, but at the same time a group with fewer MEPs certainly has less bargaining power