EU referendum in Iceland: the ‘No’ vote wins, with 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent

The ‘no’ vote has won in Iceland’s referendum on the European Union. This was announced by the public broadcaster. The ‘no’ vote has in fact built up a lead in today’s count, following the referendum on this issue which has sparked heated debate across the island. As the count draws to a close, the ‘no’ vote is leading the ‘yes’ vote by 5 percentage points (52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent), according to figures released by the public broadcaster RÚV.

“The nation has rejected negotiations on EU membership,” the RÚV concluded on its website. This is a major blow for the EU, which would have welcomed Iceland’s application and appeared ready to make compromises in order to welcome it as a member. Any discussion regarding the accession of the wealthy North Atlantic island will remain on hold until at least 2028. Specifically, voters were asked to answer the following question: “Should Iceland reopen accession negotiations with the European Union?” In 2009, in the wake of the financial crisis that had brought its economy to its knees, the country – which has a population of almost 400,000 – had submitted its application, but negotiations were suspended in 2013 following the formation of a Eurosceptic government.

The vote did not directly concern Iceland’s accession to the EU, but rather the possibility of reopening accession negotiations, which were suspended in 2013. Should the ‘Yes’ vote prevail, the government led by Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir could resume negotiations with Brussels. Any accession would, however, require a subsequent referendum.

The count also confirms a clear regional divide. In Reykjavík, the ‘Yes’ vote prevails by margins of over 50 per cent, whilst in rural areas – and particularly in the south – the ‘No’ vote has a higher share. RÚV, in its live coverage of the count, describes the result as extremely close.

At the heart of the referendum campaign lie, above all, the country’s economic and geopolitical prospects. Supporters of reopening negotiations point to the EU as a potential source of greater economic stability at a time marked by high inflation and interest rates, as well as enhanced security in an increasingly strategic Arctic region. Opponents, on the other hand, defend national sovereignty and, above all, control over its waters and fisheries, which are considered a vital interest for Iceland.