EU, for von der Leyen State of the Union speech with a torn majority

It will be a more difficult State of the Union Address than usual. The Commission President's annual ritual in front of the European Parliament to take stock of achievements and announce new initiatives sees Ursula von der Leyen on the grill this year. The speech is expected to last about an hour and, according to reports, although there has been less time to prepare it, given the busy summer, the leader of the EU executive will appear with a good fighting spirit, ready to defend the interests and values of the Union.

With just under a year to go before the start of her second term in office, in December 2024, her majority is torn by constant accusations between the Socialists and Liberals, on the one hand, who demand space for their own demands, and the People's Party, on the other, which, on the strength of its numbers and the support of the overwhelming majority of the governments of the 27, dictates the line and does not miss an opportunity to use the votes of the Patriots and Ecr when necessary. This time von der Leyen, who emerged unscathed from a no-confidence motion in July tabled by the right-wingers with only 360 majority votes, compared to her 401, will have to juggle to win the hemicycle. Although there will not be a vote on her programme, the interventions of the groups will be an important thermometer of the mood of the political forces. On the relaunch of European competitiveness, the simplification of rules for companies, the capital union, everyone is in agreement, but in Strasbourg the words of Mario Draghi in August, who urged the reforms contained in his report, echo. It is precisely the former ECB president who is expected to return to Brussels on Monday to take stock one year after his report. Still on competitiveness, another focus will be the Clean Industrial Deal, within which new initiatives are expected to strengthen technological and digital independence and create new jobs.

The relationship with the US is the real bone of contention in the debate: after the agreement on tariffs reached in Scotland, the European leader has been accused of being too soft on the unpredictable US president on the other side of the ocean. The socialists threaten to scupper the deal, opening up to a doomsday scenario, while Renew's leader Valérie Hayer points out that the Commission negotiated with the mandate of the 27 member states. The EPP calls the socialists to responsibility at a time when they are trying to find a way out with the US over the conflict in Ukraine. For his part, von der Leyen in the Chamber will defend the agreement, emphasising its goodness - maintaining access to the US market - but also the need to continue to diversify by looking at other countries (see the acceleration with the Mercosur agreement, Mexico, India, Indonesia, to name but a few), given the volatility that now characterises the trade relationship with Washington.

The issue of Gaza, which von der Leyen has not mentioned for a long time, is sure to heat up tempers. His silences are increasingly under indictment, along with the impotence manifested by High Representative Kaja Kallas, who shields herself behind the EU countries' divisions on the issue. Of the difficult situation not only in the Strip, but also in the West Bank, von der Leyen is well aware and will speak out in detail, even if nothing leaks out at the moment. Space is also given to the topic of defence, which inevitably intersects with the conflict in Ukraine. Europe is working on the 19th sanctions package, in coordination with the US, which is interested in hitting the Russian fossil fuel sector.