Exports, tariffs at low effect: 60% of strategic imports from risk countries

A small gale, certainly not the hurricane that many had predicted. ISTAT, in the new edition of the Report on the Competitiveness of Production Sectors, downplays fears on the impact of the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration on our trade interchange and on the solidity of the companies most involved in international trade.

The imposition of the additional tariffs, which were introduced in various stages and then modulated from August 2025 with the agreement between the US and the European Commission, seems to have had little effect. According to ISTAT, the vast majority of the units exporting to the States did not record any significant changes in the quantities and prices of goods sold. The strategic orientation on foreign markets, for most companies, has not changed significantly, although a quarter of them are looking for new markets, particularly in Europe. Only one company in twenty, moreover, intends to open new production plants in the United States.

The effect on export performance also seems to have been less than expected. In 2025 exports in value increased by 3.3 per cent (and imports by 3.1 per cent), with significant increases in the USA (+7.2 per cent in exports and +35.9 per cent in imports), while France, Germany and Spain recorded decreases. However, it is necessary to contextualise these data carefully. Towards the USA there is certainly a front-loading effect (i.e., the anticipation of shipments before tariffs come into force), which determined a tendential increase of almost 10% in the January-July period. And, in general, the leap in our exports remains tied to just a few sectors - pharmaceuticals (+28.5%), means of transport (+22.2%) and metallurgy (+16.5%) - while as many as 14 out of 22 examined sectors are in contraction.

ISTAT then makes precise estimates on the actual repercussions of tariffs. A doubling of the rates corresponded to a lack of growth in national exports equal to 3.2 per cent. "In other words," notes the statistics institute, "although the performance of Italian sales abroad last year was positive overall, the trade war launched by the US administration nevertheless led to a weakening of export dynamics. But the impact was very diversified. It was more noticeable in some sectors (mineral products and precious metals/jewellery) and moderate in others (optical instruments, medical, watches, music, wood, cork, paper, machinery and appliances, electrical equipment), while footwear, hats, umbrellas; plastics and rubber; fats and vegetable oils benefited indirectly. The biggest sufferers were those companies with the States as their predominant market (export growth reduced by 6.1 points).

Generally speaking, in a context in which international tensions are fuelling uncertainty and mistrust among companies (which judge the conditions for access to credit to be worsening), the profile of our exports still denotes a very high exposure, higher than that of competing European countries, both to the US and to the entire non-EU area. Simulating a zeroing of exports to the States, Italy's GDP would lose 1.1% (around EUR 20 billion). Despite this potential vulnerability, as mentioned, Italia has so far contained the damage of Trump-style protectionism. More structural and long-term problems, however, notes ISTAT, could arise if in the maelstrom of new international tensions, including the Middle East of course, we fail to exploit the benefits of the EU market to a greater extent and to realise access to more dynamic and less critical non-EU markets (Mercosur and India).