The Report

Medicines, one in three citizens complain of shortages and on generic medicines comes the risk of stock-outs

The alarm of the population on the risk of 'empty' shelves in Italia due to the continuation of the crisis in the Middle East photographed by Cittadinanzattiva is added to that of companies, while the 'Gemmato table' on supply throws water on the fire

by Barbara Gobbi

 (AdobeStock)

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The latest data on the drug shortage 'fever' arrives on the day on which the table on supply was convened at the Ministry of Health, bringing together the daily lives of patients and the effects of international tensions, the epicentre of which has been the Strait of Hormuz for two months. And if the undersecretary for health Marcello Gemmato, who had wanted to set up that table back in 2023, assures that "we are not in the presence of any emergency", but that "we will act promptly should the scenario change", the perception of the people of the pharmacies - practically all the inhabitants of the country - is quite different. At least according to the latest Report on Pharmacy, presented in Rome by Cittadinanzattiva with Federfarma.

Chronics in "shortage"

More than a third of the population, according to this report, has in fact had problems in the last year in obtaining medicines, and among all of them 'suffer' especially the chronically ill, about one in ten of whom have suffered delays 'incompatible with their therapeutic needs, putting continuity of care at risk'. It is no coincidence that the document's proposals include tackling drug shortages 'by means of collaboration between all those involved, for an integrated management model of the phenomenon to be adopted on a permanent basis' and starting with the community pharmacy as the system's 'shock absorber', capable of guaranteeing continuity of treatment in most cases.

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Pharmacy Solutions

Practically all pharmacists (95 per cent) have experienced drug shortages or unavailability in the last twelve months, demonstrating a "recurring condition in the pharmaceutical supply chain, with impacts both on the health system and on the daily practice of pharmacies", reads the Cittadinanzattiva report. But the resilience tools are there, and how, and pharmacists are equipped: "They can, for example, propose replacing the drug prescribed but lacking with an equivalent or generic one, which has the same efficacy and the same active ingredient despite being 'no logo'," explains Marco Cossolo, president of Federfarma. "They can also check availability at other distributors or pharmacies and report the shortage to the doctor, who can modify the therapy. Or they can prepare galenic medicines in their laboratories and finally monitor and manage stocks of available medicines, reporting shortages".

Generics at risk

In recent days, it was Farmindustria that had sounded the alarm over soaring costs and the 'drug risk'. Today, in particular, it is the manufacturers of generic and equivalent medicines, faced with the continuing stalemate in the US-Iran negotiations, who are sounding a further alarm bell and calling for urgent action: "The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are causing new criticalities in the drug supply chains, affecting both logistics and the increase in costs along the entire supply chain and increasing the risk of shortages. Surveys conducted at European level show, in fact, a system that is still functioning but vulnerable, characterised by unstable balances and a growing dependence on the containment measures adopted by individual companies,' explains Egualia president Riccardo Zagaria. 'In particular,' he points out, 'strong pressures persist on transport costs, energy and raw materials, with direct effects on active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), packaging materials and distribution capacity, especially for the routes most exposed to the current international scenarios. The possible continuation of the crisis could also compromise safety stocks and amplify supply difficulties, with major impacts on the availability of essential medicines. 41% of companies have stocks for only 8-10 weeks. If these supply chain disruptions were to continue beyond the capacity of current stocks, short-lived, often life-saving medicines would start to become scarce'.

In this framework - the generic drug manufacturers point out - strengthening the sustainability of the expired patent medicines sector, an essential component to ensure therapeutic continuity and access to treatment, becomes a priority. On this point, which has already been pointed out to the institutions on several occasions, the need for adequate attention to be paid both to regulatory policies, including in the context of the activities of the Italian Medicines Agency, and to the sector's reform processes is called for. 'Equivalent medicines,' Zagaria concludes, 'are in fact a pillar of the National Health Service, but they require economic and industrial conditions consistent with the need to ensure production stability and continuity of supply. At the same time, there is a need to consolidate monitoring and cooperation tools at the European level, to favour the fluidity of logistic flows, and to maintain adequate margins of regulatory flexibility, including through measures aimed at containing the impact of energy costs. Only through a coordinated approach will it be possible to mitigate the risks of further shortages and preserve the resilience of the pharmaceutical system'.

Confirming a bleak scenario is a survey by Coface, one of the world's leading providers of credit insurance and commercial risk management, according to which tensions in the petrochemical supply chain are likely to have significant repercussions on the global production of generic drugs, possibly affecting the availability of essential treatments. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of critical raw materials and components from the Middle East to Asia, causing a sharp increase in prices in the petrochemical sector. The shock," Coface warns, "is progressively spilling down the value chain, all the way to the pharmaceutical industry: many small-molecule drugs, including consumer generics, depend on oil- and gas-sourced raw materials and essential chemical derivatives.

The risks of protracted shock

The vulnerability is accentuated by the central role of China and India in the global pharmaceutical supply chain. China produces about 40% of global active pharmaceutical ingredients, while India accounts for about 20% of global generic production. A prolonged tightening of petrochemical supply could therefore put pressure on Asian manufacturers, squeezed between supply difficulties and rising costs.

The generics market is particularly exposed because it is characterised by low prices and very low margins. Even moderate increases in the costs of energy, raw materials or chemical intermediates can undermine manufacturers' profitability, pushing some players to reduce production or exit the market. Recent episodes, such as the shortages of amoxicillin in 2022-2023 and certain injectable oncology drugs, confirm the structural fragility of the supply chain.

In the short term, the priority given to essential medicines, government intervention and the stockpiles accumulated by some countries after the pandemic could mitigate the risk. However, these margins of safety remain limited and could shrink rapidly if the shock persists.

The Global Scenario

Low-income countries are the most vulnerable. Generics have expanded access to treatment in many emerging economies, but it is precisely the least profitable markets that risk being penalised first if costs rise or supply is reduced. Africa appears particularly exposed, depending on India and China for around 80% of finished drugs, especially low-cost generics. In this context,' Coface further points out, 'the petrochemical shock is not just a price problem: it affects an already concentrated and fragile global pharmaceutical supply chain, with the risk of generic drug shortages, rising healthcare costs and reduced access to essential care.

Not only drugs

Meanwhile, with the coming into full operation of the 'service pharmacy' - sanctioned after a ten-year trial by the budget law for 2026 - citizens are finding in these outlets across the territory answers not only to the demand for medicines, but also a first contact for booking visits and examinations and more. About three pharmacies out of four - reads the Cittadinanzattiva report - have separate premises to provide specific services. The proportion of pharmacies that do not yet offer services is only about 1 in 10 and is mostly concentrated in . This phenomenon predominantly affects rural areas as opposed to urban ones, as pharmacies in small towns may have more logistical difficulties. Among the most popular services are rapid diagnostic tests (such as blood glucose and cholesterol), offered by almost eight out of ten pharmacies. As for screening, more than one in four citizens has taken part in prevention campaigns, with adherence increasing significantly in adults (4 in ten in the 51-74 age group), especially for the prevention of colorectal cancer.
In the area of vaccinations and telemedicine, around one in two pharmacies administers the flu vaccine - a service used mainly by those suffering from chronic illnesses - and more than seven out of ten pharmacies provide ECGs or cardiac and blood pressure Holter monitoring. More than 20 per cent of citizens who responded to the questionnaire have had an ECG; over 19 per cent have had a blood pressure holter. Again, use is concentrated among chronic patients and senior citizens. "The data clearly show that pharmacies are already doing much more than in the past," summarises Anna Lisa Mandorino, Secretary General of Cittadinanzattiva. "Now the real challenge is to ensure that the State and the Regions really integrate them, eliminating the differences between cities and isolated areas. The real turning point will only come when every citizen can access these services in an easy, equal and conscious way. We must push politics to create a model that puts the pharmacy at the centre of the territory to truly protect everyone's right to health,' is the request.

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