Defence

Super fighter in the balance: the decisive role of Dassault and Franco-German tensions over the future of the 100 billion Fcas

The European 100 billion super fighter programme is threatened by internal conflicts between Dassault and Airbus, with possible geopolitical and industrial repercussions between France and Germany.

11 February 2026

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Il CEO di Dassault Aviation Eric Trappier. LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The road to the French-German 100 billion fighter jet seems uphill. And what makes the path of the Fcas (Future Combat Air System) programme and the ambitions of President Emmanuel Macron uncertain is precisely an 'internal' variable: Dassault Aviation (which lost 1.35% yesterday on the Paris Stock Exchange).

Announced with great pomp in 2017 by the tenant of the Elysée Palace and the then Chancellor Angela Merkel, and also espoused two years later by Spain, the project aims to replace all the current combat aircraft - the French Rafale jets and the Eurofighters of Germany and Spain - with sixth-generation fighters; not just planes, then, but an entire system of aircraft, both manned vehicles and unmanned drones, for combat and reconnaissance.

The Joint Project

The three partners have equal shares of 33% each and, according to the agreements, Dassault would have been at the helm of the jet and the defence division of Airbus, based in Germany, at the helm of the rest. But despite the big announcements, the programme never 'took off', suffering a series of stop-and-go's linked to the planning and design disputes that arose between the French manufacturer and the Airbus group, which represents German and Spanish interests.

Dassault Aviation, a subsidiary of the Dassault family, has always had an 'independent streak', backed up by a very strong influence in the French defence industrial landscape, since it has been the main supplier of the nation's fighter aircraft fleet since the 1950s. In the 1980s,' recalls the Financial Times in a lengthy analysis of the dossier, 'the contractor had abandoned an early transnational defence project, the Eurofighter Typhoon (later built by the UK, Italia, Germany and Spain) because it wanted a leading position in design and most of the production.

And today history is repeating itself: the company is determined to retain control over the fighter part of the Future Combat Air System, despite Airbus's firm opposition, forcing Macron into repeated talks with Chancellor Friedrich Merz to try to save the project from failure. A situation, this, which has brought attention back to the complicated relationship between the contractor and the French government. On the one hand, in fact, the République is Dassault's main customer: army purchases make up most of its revenue, all exports must be authorised, presidents are the main promoters abroad (just think of the 100 Rafale aircraft contract that Macron is trying to conclude with India); on the other hand, however, the company founded by Marcel Bloch (later Dassault) boasts an entirely national production, which is then the factor that guarantees it a real possibility of independence from any partner and a firm influence on the French state.

Short irons

Managing director Eric Trappier made this clear: 'We are very willing to cooperate with partners, including the Germans, but we do not need them.

Marwan Lahoud, a former Airbus executive and industry veteran, explained to Ft: 'Everyone thinks that the government makes all the decisions, but the reality is more complex: there is a quid pro quo. It all depends on what France expects from a defence company: do they expect it to obey or to produce the best possible weapons systems?'

Another industry executive, again questioned by the British newspaper, was more blunt: 'Ministers come and go, presidents come and go, but Dassault remains'.

But this tug-of-war risks creating an insurmountable stalemate that would not only put Macron, a staunch supporter of European defence cooperation and the reduction of dependence on US weapons, in a difficult position, but would also risk leading the Germans to approach a parallel project: that of Italia. In the last period, the hypothesis has been circulating on several occasions that Germany might approach the door of the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap), the competing programme on a latest-generation super fighter led by Italia, the UK and Japan.

The Gcap goes on

In the meantime, the programme goes on its way: 'We have our road map, we are following it punctually, and we are going ahead as if nothing had happened. It is obvious that if there should be confirmation of difficulties from our partners or confirmation of requests to enter, these will be analysed,' said the CEO of Leonardo (strategic partner of the project), Roberto Cingolani, on the sidelines of an event at Luiss. "We are waiting to see what happens, but for once the problems are not ours, let us go ahead and be calm. I believe there could be opportunities, but let's see. If there are changes elsewhere, opportunities for other partners or alliances we will look at them, but the project is there'.

For the time being, however, these are only rumours: in a very recent interview with Il Sole 24 Ore, the French president stated that the project is alive and well. "I have never received any communication from the German side to the contrary. On the contrary, the air forces of Germany and France have explained to their respective ministers that they consider it a good project'. But, of course, if it became reality, such a scenario could sour industrial relations between Paris and Berlin: 'If the German partner questions the joint aircraft, we will be obliged to do the same with the joint tank,' Macron threatened, as reported by Le Monde. And a German minister, quoted by the French newspaper, reportedly replied: 'France has much more need for new tanks than Germany, which can develop and build a new generation of tanks without France.