The super fighter case: Germany may abandon France and Spain to join the Gcap
According to four European officials in Paris and Berlin, the Future Combat Air System (Fcas) has reached the end credits, paralysed for almost a year due to industrial disputes, mainly between Dassault Aviation and Airbus
by Andrea Carli
Key points
A door that could close for France, a door that could open wide for Italia, the United Kingdom and Japan. All in the context of what, on the defence front, is considered by insiders to be the 'match of matches', namely the project to build a sixth-generation fighter jet. A goal that is in the sights of two competing fronts. On the one hand, the Future Combat Air System, led by France, Germany and Spain. On the other the Gcap, which currently sees Italia, the United Kingdom and Japan wearing the same shirt. But the Fcas does not seem to be enjoying good health. And Germany might consider leaving the former to its fate, and bet on the latter.
Launched in 2017 at the urging of President Emmanuel Macron and then-Chancellor Angela Merkel, as part of a renewed Franco-German cooperation as the heart of European defence with the aim of replacing the French Rafale and the German and Spanish Eurofighters from 2040, the Fcas programme has reportedly reached its final credits, paralysed for almost a year due to industrial disagreements, mainly between Dassault Aviation and Airbus, according to what four European officials in Paris and Berlin told Politico. Conflicts that would call into question the leadership of the programme, but also the sharing of work and control of technologies.
Germany could join the super fighter project with Italia, UK and Japan
On the other side is a competing project, the Gcap, an acronym for 'Global Combat Air Programme', which currently sees Italy, United Kingdom and Japan wearing the same shirt. A collaboration launched in 2022 that aims to develop a next-generation aircraft system by 2035. Leonardo is a strategic partner together with Britain's BAE Systems and Japan's Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co. Ltd. It is a 50:50 joint venture. 'At present' because in the last period the hypothesis has been circulating with increasing insistence that Germany, once the project that sees it alongside France and Spain is closed, could knock on the door and ask Rome, London and Tokyo to join their team. On the occasion of the summit between Italia and Germany that took place on 23 January in Rome, in the splendid setting of Villa Pamphili, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is said to have addressed the issue with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The Gcap issue was also among those on the table during the visit that Meloni recently made to Japan.
The System of Systems
Christened as the 'system of systems', the Gcap will operate in the five domains, air, land, sea, space and cyber, according to a star structure in which the next-generation fighter will be the 'core platform' connected to other peripheral 'systems', piloted and unmanned. It is a challenge for the aerospace, defence and security industry that will guarantee technological sovereignty for generations to come. Germany could guarantee the other partners a chip on their shoulder. For this year, the German Ministry of Defence can count on investments in excess of EUR 108 billion. In the following years, the figure will grow, reaching EUR 152 billion for 2029 alone, i.e. three times as much as was invested in 2023. As far as Italia is concerned, the Gcap will be complementary for a certain period to the platforms in service, namely the Eurofighter and the F-35, while in the long term it will replace the former.
Distances between the French and Germans
The failure of the iconic Fcas programme - which envisages not only a new fighter jet, but also drones and a digital combat network (combat cloud) - would be a major political blow for Macron. Dassault claims a dominant role in the development of the next-generation fighter (Ngf), a central element of the Fcas. 'A collapse would be a very bad signal, which is why Macron tried to save it,' explained one of the sources. Neither the German government nor the French defence ministry responded to requests for comment on the possibility of an imminent end to the project, although public statements in favour of its continuation continue to arrive from Paris. "We are doing everything we can to save this programme. We will see how we can bring it to an end,' Patrick Pailloux, the new head of the French military procurement agency, said this week. Macron himself holds back and rules out that the project with Germany and Spain has reached its final stages.
