Ferrari, pressure on the stock. 17 billion in value burnt in two months

Ferrari pays for uncertainty over estimates and the electric challenge. The red car continues to lose ground on the stock market, where it fell 3% to EUR 315.40 during the 10 December session. All this while on the market, some business houses revised their estimates on the stock, which has been under pressure on the stock market for a few weeks now.

More generally, the series of negative sessions has downsized the stock market capitalisation and with it the multiples at which the Maranello company trades. Two numbers give the measure of the ongoing process: since the beginning of October, the share has lost 21.24% of its value. The stock was trading at around €420 per share on 7 October, on the eve of the industrial plan. Yesterday it touched EUR 315 during the session. In all, capitalisation of more than EUR 17 billion has been burnt in the space of two months. But on closer inspection, if we look at the values of February, when John Elkann's Exor decided to place the 4% stake in the Rossa, the burnt capitalisation rises to around 30 billion: it was worth over 480 euro per share and has fallen to 315 euro.

On closer inspection, the pressure on the share price started above all after the presentation of the industrial plan. A plan that aims for 9 billion in revenues in 2030, with 4.7 billion in planned investments over the next five years, and paves the way for the official presentation of the first electric car. But on the one hand the electric challenge and on the other the path mapped out by the industrial plan to 2030 did not immediately convince the stock exchange, which judged the plan 'too prudent'. In detail, the Maranello group envisages four new launches per year, on average, planned between 2026 and 2030, and the electric Ferrari will be an addition to the range of models on offer. When fully operational, therefore in 2030, the product offering will be 40% Ice, 40% hybrid and 20% electric. The strategic plan to 2030 thus sketches the identikit of the Ferrari of the future, but the numbers were lower than expected by the market, which has long been accustomed to more aggressive estimates.

So much so that on Wednesday, 10 December, analysts at Jefferies reduced their estimates and target price on the stock, while those at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an 'equal-weight'.

Jefferies cut its target price on Ferrari to EUR310 from EUR345 and reduced its estimates for the next three years, leaving estimates for the fourth quarter of this year largely unchanged. For the next three years, Jefferies expects deliveries to fall 0.4% in 2026, rise 0.4% in 2027 and 1.1% in 2028, compared to consensus estimates of increases of 1.1%, 0.4% and 1.5% respectively. Margin estimates are also below consensus, as are earnings per share estimates, "reflecting a cautious view on deliveries".