Demography

Fewer and fewer people and businesses: red alert in Valle d'Aosta

Istat, in 2050 in the region 12,000 fewer inhabitants than today. From 2000 to 2025 collapse of enterprises. Turcato, Confindustria: 'Demographic challenge decisive. Decades are needed to reverse these phenomena'

by Carlo Andrea Finotto

Uno scorcio di Courmayeur, ambita meta turistica valdostana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

In 2050, Valle d'Aosta could find itself with 110,686 inhabitants: about 12,000 fewer than today. Males would be 55,085 and females 55,601. The capital could also see its population shrink to 30,430: 14,847 males and 15,583 females.

This is not said by a crystal ball but by an accurate projection of ISTAT, which in its section on population and households has recently made available data on a national and territorial level, assuming the demographic situation in 25 years' time.

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The Istat database pushes the projections up to 2080, when the regional population could be as low as 92,597 in the median hypothesis.

And yet, a few days ago, the Institute of Statistics itself had made the news by releasing data on the birth rate in 2024, where, against a consolidated general decline (-2.3% births in Italy), the Valle d'Aosta (+5.5%), Alto Adige (+1.9%) and Trentino (+0.9%) stood out. There is, therefore, the possibility of an unexpected as well as hoped-for reversal of the trend that will be recorded in the updated statistical projections, but at present the situation is worrying. On the future, it is the Institute itself that warns that there is a wide margin of variability.

Forecasts aside, the ISTAT platform data on the permanent census of population and households (released in April 2025) say that Valle d'Aosta had 122,877 inhabitants (60,317 males and 62,560 females) in January 2024. Two years earlier there were 123,360. Again in 2023, the capital Aosta had just over 33,000 inhabitants: 33,098 (15,594 males and 17,504 females).

And the manufacturing sector? In 2000 there were 12,793 active enterprises throughout the region - the data can be obtained from the Movimprese-Infocamere database -: 2,218 belonged to construction, 1,138 were manufacturing activities, 2,600 were commercial activities, and 1,324 were hotels and restaurants. The vast sector of agriculture, forestry, fish farming totalled 2,967 active enterprises.

Dal 2011 al 2024 l'Italia ha perso 193 mila aziende giovanili

Again, as with the population, the figures for the second quarter of 2025 speak for themselves: the total number of active enterprises is 10,780. More than 2,000 fewer than in the year 2000. The construction of residential buildings has 711, but, compared to 25 years earlier, the sector has been divided into other categories: this adds up to 1,499 companies active in specialised construction work and 43 in civil engineering. A total of 2,253 enterprises (although the entries are different from 2000). There are 697 manufacturing activities. Trade-related activities number 1,515, accommodation and catering 1,699. Agriculture, forestry and pisciculture are found with 1,414 enterprises.

Beyond some counter-trend data, such as in the case of accommodation activities, and the not exactly identical denominations of the product subdivisions, what appears is a strong skimming, especially in the manufacturing, trade and agricultural sectors, which cannot fail to cause concern.

For Francesco Turcato, president of Confindustria Valle d'Aosta, the problem of the demographic decline and its economic and social repercussions is not confined to a specific territory: 'The demographic challenge is the decisive challenge facing the entire Italian economy, because it impacts on skills and productivity, but it also reverberates on the generational change at the helm of companies.

Turcato refers to the latest ISTAT data for 2023, which 'place Valle d'Aosta in last place in the North both in terms of natural balance and resident population, which has dropped by 0.2%. It is precisely this last figure that certifies a reduced attractiveness, especially when looking at the younger age groups'.

These dynamics manifest themselves despite the fact that 'the production system is lively, tourism is a growing sector worldwide, especially in winter, and the welfare system in Valle d'Aosta guarantees good performance,' the president of Confindustria Valle d'Aosta emphasises.

Evidently, the incentives to stay or move to the region are not enough. "Too little to generate even an effective retention of the young people who are born and study here," analyses Francesco Turcato. "You cannot think that these trends do not have an impact on the resilience of the manufacturing industrial fabric, just like the scarcity of infrastructure. Because working here means moving here with the whole family, as there are no fast connections with Turin or Milan that allow for sustainable commuting. These are problems that we have been pointing out for some time, Confindustria Vall d'Aosta is very active in its relationship with schools, from primary school onwards, with projects such as Eureka Funziona and Pmi Day, the dialogue with the Region is constant, but these are phenomena that take decades to be reversed'.

carloandrea.finotto@ilsole24ore.com

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