Gaza deal slows crude oil, Tenaris leads oil declines
For the Italian group, the spotlight is already on the third quarter accounts, due on 29 October. Analysts expect revenues and margins to fall quarter-on-quarter in the period
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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Tenaris viaggia a passo lento a Piazza Affari (debole il FTSE MIB ), in scia ai dubbi espressi dagli analisti di Bnp Paribas Exane che hanno abbassato la raccomandazione a "neutral" da "outperform" e l'obiettivo di prezzo da 18,50 a 17 euro. Vero è che tutto il comparto risente del ribasso dei prezzi del petrolio (giovedì -1,6% e venerdì -0,5% sia il Wti sia il Brent), con analisti concordi nel dire che il premio di rischio del mercato è diminuito dopo che Israele e Hamas hanno concordato la prima fase di un piano per porre fine alla guerra a Gaza.
Thus the sector's Euro Stoxx 600 gives up 0.83%, in Milan, in addition to Tenaris also falls Eni, Shell loses 0.94% in Amsterdam and Bp 0.5% in London. "Oil prices have entered a correction phase as the Israel/Hamas conflict seems to be heading towards a conclusion," say experts at Bok Financial. In addition, "the fact that a peace process is finally getting underway in the Middle East is easing tension somewhat. This could ease fears regarding the passage of oil tankers through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea," said analysts at Seb.
As far as Tenaris is concerned, the spotlight is already on the third-quarter accounts, due out on 29 October. "We expect revenues and margins to decline quarter-on-quarter in the period, due to lower Tubes area revenues in the US and Argentina and lower line pipe volumes," Intermonte analysts explain. In detail, revenues are expected at $2.883 billion (-1% year-on-year and -7% quarter-on-quarter), adjusted EBITDA at $649 million (-6% year-on-year and -11% quarter-on-quarter) and net income at $438 million (-1% year-on-year and -18% quarter-on-quarter).
At the time of its second-quarter results, Tenaris had forecast "high single-digit" declining sales in the third quarter, while margins wereexpected to decline slightly on a sequential basis, but still in the 20-25% range. Regarding the impact of tariffs in the US, Tenaris had said it expected additional costs of around $140-150 million per quarter. "However, the negative impact should be largely offset by management actions and a gradual increase in average selling prices," Intermonte said.
