Generali races towards all-time highs, the pivot company of the new risiko

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Once the long reorganisation of Banca Monte Paschi Siena is over, it could now be the turn of Generali . The new banking risiko, in fact, and the future balances of Italian finance promise to pass from the Lion of Trieste, which in the meantime is travelling above 38 euro per share at Piazza Affari, not far from its historical highs reached in the distant autumn of 2000, as its CEO Philippe Donnet, who has been at the helm of Trieste for 10 years now, recalled last week at the opening of the shareholders' meeting.

Remaining in the background for months, the company has now suddenly returned to centre stage after the shareholders' meeting, which witnessed the rise of Unicredit , which market sources now speculate is close to 10% of the insurance company (between recent purchases and the future effect of the buyback). Net of the role that Andrea Orcel will decide to play, the other major unknown factor is represented by the moves of the Sienese bank, with rumours (immediately denied) suggesting that Luigi Lovaglio is inclined to sell 13% of Generali (which he controls via Mediobanca ) in order to have extra resources to invest in further acquisitions.

And the main suspect for a merger remains Banco Bpm , which, however, has a weighty partner such as the French of Credit Agricole. Not to mention the reorganisation of the Delfin holding, where Leonardo Maria del Vecchio aims to become the relative majority shareholder and the always very dialectic relations within the Monte dei Paschi shareholding structure.

A puzzle with a difficult fit, and many pieces and fronts open. Intermonte's analysts, for example, shift their gaze not so much to Trieste as to Germany: 'UniCredit's attention is currently focused on the acquisition of Commerzbank, which would lead to significant value creation,' they explain, even if the barricades of German politics (and of Commerz's own top management) remain.