Demographic transition

Giorgetti: dramatic depopulation, policy shelves issue

The ageing of the population is considered negative as it has impacts on public spending, e.g. on pensions and healthcare

by Nicoletta Cottone

Rosina: "Italia in denatalità da 40 anni"

3' min read

3' min read

 

"Denatality, population ageing, and territorial depopulation are structural problems that our country, like so many others, has to face, with long-term consequences for financial stability and economic development. Countering demographic decline is a political objective that the government has set itself since it took office, in the face of a trend that has been going on for decades. Italy has long been affected by a decline in birth and fertility rates, as well as an increase in life expectancy. However, it is not just an Italian problem, the decline in the birth rate occurs in most high-income countries'. This was said by the Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti, during the hearing before the parliamentary commission of enquiry into the economic and social effects of the demographic transition underway.

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Risks to Public Debt Sustainability

The minister recalled that demographic factors influence public finance balances and public debt. Declining birth rates and an ageing population 'pose risks to the sustainability of public debt. On the demographic transition, the 'ageing' factor is important on assessments of public debt sustainability. The ageing of the population is considered negative as it entails impacts on public spending, for example on pensions and healthcare,' said the Minister of Economy and Finance. According to EU data, 'due to demographic challenges the contribution to growth from the labour force will be negative from 2030'.

Studio FMG, la denatalità è un fattore culturale e non solo economico

It is not just a statistical and accounting challenge

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Faced with the problem of the birth rate, 'we have chosen not to turn away but to face reality and face it with courage and determination,' stressed the economy minister, emphasising that 'working together we can try to reverse the trend'. The birth rate 'is not just a statistical and accounting challenge, but a human challenge', he said, emphasising that the government is tackling 'this issue with courage responsibility and vision'.

Dramatic depopulation, policy shelves it

Territorial depopulation in the country's inland areas is a dramatic situation,' stressed Giancarlo Giorgetti. 'When the population of childbearing age ends, when only the elderly remain, no one is born anymore and entire communities are destined to die,' Giorgetti added. "This is an issue that the entire political class has in mind, but which they deliberately tend to set aside," the economy minister added, emphasising that "since it is not the first issue for anyone, it is evidently then not dealt with".

The ruthless numbers must stimulate our action

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Numbers that appear 'ruthless must stimulate our action', urges the minister, emphasising that 'we are not starting from scratch, because the government has already put in place' a whole series of policies, which 'are not isolated measures but a strategic design', because 'we need a broad vision that takes into account all the variables involved'. "We cannot delude ourselves that just a few years will be enough" to reverse a "trend that has been going on for decades", but "we have chosen not to turn away but to face reality and confront it with courage and determination".

In the South risk -7.9 mln inhabitants by 2080, -3.4 mln by 2050

In the short term, the population is expected to increase slightly in northern Italy (+1.5 per thousand per year), decline slightly in central Italy (-0.9) and decrease more markedly in southern Italy (-4.8). In the medium and long term, the decline will be generalised in all the territorial divisions, but much more pronounced in the southern regions, where the population could drop by 3.4 million by 2050 and by as much as 7.9 million by 2080, the minister recalled.

Bonetti, demographic sustainability in the accounting law

"Our country is in the process of revising its accounting law precisely in relation to the European reform that Minister Giorgetti has extensively detailed and elaborated on in today's hearing. We believe as a Commission to propose that the perspective of demographic impact and sustainability be introduced in the new law. Some parameters are already indicated in the law, such as gender and the environment. It seems to us that at this historical moment our country can place this point as diriment also in the redefinition of public finance,' stressed the president of the parliamentary enquiry commission on demographic transition Elena Bonetti.

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