Government Crisis

Germany: Scholz torpedoes Finance Minister Lindner, in his place Kukies. Confidence vote in January

Majority coalition blows up due to rifts over economic policy, possible early vote in spring, but the Cdu is calling for an accelerated timetable. To Finance goes Jorg Kukies, one of the main architects of the joint EU loan programme to deal with the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic

from our correspondent in Berlin Gianluca Di Donfrancesco

Aggiornato il 7 novembre 2024, ore 9:19

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Il cancelliere tedesco Olaf Scholz (a destra) e il ministro delle Finanze Christian Lindner

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The traffic light has gone out: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has sacked Finance Minister Christian Lindner, in a spin-off with no return in the crisis of the government coalition between the SPD, Greens and Liberals. It was impossible to find a compromise to overcome the rifts over economic policy, with the country teetering on the brink of recession for the second year in a row. Social Democrat Scholz will undergo a confidence vote in mid-January, a step that could trigger new elections in March.

The charges against Lindner

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Very harsh words about Lindner: 'Whoever joins a government,' Scholz said at a press conference on 6 November, 'must act seriously and responsibly and must be prepared to compromise in the interests of all citizens. But Christian Lindner cares about the short-term survival of his party'. And again: 'There is no basis of trust for further cooperation.

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The political crisis erupts in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election: the tariffs he threatens to adopt are an added risk for a strongly export-oriented economy like Germany's. And it comes amidst the clash between trade unions and one of the country's iconic industries, Volkswagen, which is threatening to close plants at home for the first time in its history.

On 7 November, the Transport Minister, the liberal Volker Wissing, who had asked Lindner not to break away, decided to leave the party and remain in office in the Scholz government, signalling a rift within the FDP as well.

Emergency Summits

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In order to try to keep the traffic light coalition alive, Scholz had called yet another summit in the chancellery with Lindner and the green Robert Habeck, Minister of Economics, who had also made important concessions on the energy transition front. The meeting started shortly after 6pm and was expected to last all night. Instead, it was traumatically resolved by the evening. The most difficult knot was (and remains) the coverage for the more than 10 billion hole in the 2025 budget manoeuvre, which has been pending before Parliament since 14 November. Lindner imposed his own recipes for 'an economic turnaround' in a document published in recent days, which was rejected by the SPD. The now former minister put on the table as an alternative the proposal of an early vote at the beginning of 2025, compared to the September deadline.

Lindner, after his defeats in the recent elections in the eastern Länder, has repeatedly threatened to leave the coalition. Without the FDP, Scholz could try to continue leading a minority government. However, he would have to seek ad hoc majorities for each measure.

The Greens will remain at the side of the SPD. "We will proceed in an orderly manner to new elections and in spring Germany will vote. Until then, we remain in office and are firmly committed to fully fulfilling the duties of the mandate, providing stability from within the government, which Germany can and must offer Europe," Habeck said.

A former Merkel minister for Scholz

Lindner will be replaced at Finance by Jorg Kukies. He is currently Secretary of State at the Chancellery. An economist, he is considered an important advisor to Scholz, who had him with him when he was finance minister in the last government led by Angela Merkel. Before entering politics, he was co-head of Goldman Sachs Germany and later one of the main architects of the joint EU loan programme to deal with the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Cdu: confidence vote now

The conservative Cdu-Csu union has long been asking the executive to pull the plug and go to an early vote, but may decide to support some laws, showing a sense of responsibility, so as not to paralyse the country. The President of the Republic, Frank Walter Steinmeier, received the leader of the opposition, Friedrich Merz (Cdu).

Scholz has already said that he will seek 'dialogue' with his political opponent to work together on issues 'crucial for our country: the rapid strengthening of our economy and defence'.

Merz, on the morning after the crisis, however, called on Scholz to speed up and come to parliament immediately to ask for a vote of confidence, without waiting until January. "The coalition no longer has a majority in the Bundestag and we must therefore urge the chancellor to ask for a vote of confidence immediately, at the latest at the beginning of next week," he said.

In the polls, Germans are more or less evenly divided on whether to go to an early vote. The Christian Democrats have a clear lead, above 30%. The SPD is only third, with about 16%, behind the ultra-right xenophobic Afd (17%), which is very strong in the eastern Länder. The Greens stop at 10%; the Fdp travels under 5% and risks being left out of the Bundestag. The electoral campaign will be dominated by the themes of ecological transition, immigration and support for Ukraine and will see another protagonist in the ranks of the populist movements, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, born in January from a split from the Linke and already able to rise to 8% in consensus.


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