Elections

Poland, the sovereignist Nawrocki wins the presidential elections with 50.89%.

Nawrocki's election signifies the return of populism, which to the surprise of many states around the world seemed to have been defeated by Tusk

1 June 2025

Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, reacts to the exit polls of the second round of the presidential election, in Warsaw, Poland, June 1, 2025. REUTERS/Aleksandra Szmigiel TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

3' min read

The sovereignist Karol Nawrocki won the runoff for the presidential elections in Poland with 50.89% of the vote (10,606,628), while his rival - the mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski - got 49.11% (10,237,177 votes): this was reported by the Polish news agency Pap, which cites data from the National Election Commission after all polling stations had been counted. The turnout was 71.63%.

In the night, the first results (the late polls, in which the data of the beginning of the counting also flows in) gave a head-to-head between the pro-EU candidate and the sovereignist opponent. If the exit polls had in fact given the advantage to the mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, the first projections, on the contrary, published at 11pm, overturned the situation, recording Nawrocki's overtaking - albeit by a little -.

Premature announcement

The pro-European candidate close to Donald Tusk had claimed victory close to the close of the polls at 9pm. "We have won, even and on a razor's edge," Trzaskowski, of Civic Platform, had said after the first exit polls saw him ahead by a whisker, although he admitted he had to wait for confirmation. 'I will be the president who will unite all Poles,' he had added.

This was not the case.

The opponent, who presented himself with an independent list but is supported by the Pis, had not given up at all: 'You will see that tonight we will win and save Poland,' Nawrocki replied narrowly. "We will not allow Donald Tusk's monopoly in the country's institutions".

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Nawrocki's vision

With this vote, Poland decides not only who will be the new head of state for the next five years, but also the future structure of this country and its role in Europe and the world, as the protagonists of the election campaign themselves have repeatedly stated. The election of Nawrocki means the return of populism, which to the surprise of many states in the world seemed to have been defeated by Tusk.

Nawrocki, originally from Gdansk, a historian, twice married, with three young children, instead looks in the opposite direction: he sees Poland as 'secure, strong and ambitious' and above all 'proud' of its history and Christian tradition. A sovereignist, he does not hide his reservations towards Brussels, while he looks with high hopes, not least because of the security challenges, to the United States of Donald Trump. During the election campaign, he has already made a trip to Washington to have his photo taken with the US president. At an election meeting, he then declared himself against Ukraine's entry into the Atlantic Pact. Formally independent, but supported by the Pis, the director of the Institute for National Memory is said to aim to continue in the wake of Duda, blocking progressive reforms and trying to undermine the current government. Having repeatedly declared his opposition to Tusk's executive, as a new president he could focus on early parliamentary elections with the hope of helping Kaczynski's party return to power.

The rule of law

Two opposing visions clashed: the mayor of Warsaw - married, two children, and a past as a member of the European Parliament - has in recent years shared with Donald Tusk the leadership of the Civic Platform party, winner of the 2023 elections, and declares himself open to dialogue and the search for a broad social consensus, in order to bring Polish society out of the drastic divisions caused by the work of the populist government of the Law and Justice party (2015-2023).

Trzaskowski's election would have paved the way for the implementation of several laws blocked as of 2023 by the presidential veto of the outgoing head of state, Andrzej Duda, also linked to Kaczynski's Pis. Among the most urgent issues, urged by the EU, there is - it remains - basically the return of Poland to the rule of law: Duda has in fact for years ignored the criticism and negative rulings of the EU courts by appointing judges according to political procedures, deemed not to comply with European laws.

In the international sphere, as president, the mayor of Warsaw could also support greater integration of Poland into the EU in the field of defence and Euro-Atlantic cooperation.