The DPFP

Healthcare spending is rising and now accounts for 6.3 per cent of GDP: the issue of resources is now at the heart of the budget

More money in absolute terms, then, but a smaller share of the country’s wealth. This is the dual nature of healthcare in the new Public Finance Policy Document

Una veduta esterna di Palazzo Chigi durante il Consiglio dei ministri, Roma, 19 luglio 2019.
ANSA/ALESSANDRO DI MEO ANSA

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The new public finance document, the DPFP, raises the estimate for healthcare expenditure in 2027 by almost half a billion, but compared with the DFP forecasts from April, healthcare will account for a smaller share of national wealth and will have a lower impact on GDP, which is forecast to rise more sharply: the new forecast is for a further average increase of around 0.2 per cent compared with April, and for this reason, despite rising funding, healthcare accounts for a slightly smaller share of the wealth generated than was forecast five months ago,

Issues relating to staffing, waiting lists and the running of community homes remain unresolved; at this stage, only the budget bill itself could resolve them.

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More money in absolute terms, then, but a smaller share of the country’s wealth. This is the dual nature of healthcare in the new Public Finance Policy Document, approved by the Council of Ministers on 2 October and submitted to Parliament.

Figures on the growth in expenditure in the Dpfp

In 2027, healthcare expenditure is forecast to reach 151.7 billion euros, some 446 million more than estimated as recently as April. The increase continues in subsequent years: in 2028, the figure will reach 155.6 billion, almost 600 million more than previously forecast, and in 2029 it will stand at just over 160 billion. But there is a figure that reveals the other side of the coin. In April, healthcare expenditure was forecast to stand at 6.4 per cent of GDP for the entire 2026–2029 period. Now, the 6.4 per cent figure applies only to 2026, whilst from 2027 to 2029 it falls to 6.3 per cent. This does not mean that healthcare spending is being cut: it will continue to grow, by 1.9 per cent in 2027, 2.6 per cent in 2028 and 2.8 per cent in 2029. However, the economy is now estimated to be slightly stronger than in the spring and, as a result, healthcare will account for a slightly smaller share of GDP.

A small difference, but not an insignificant one, in a health service that is simultaneously required to fund contract renewals, tackle staff shortages, care for an increasingly ageing population and ensure that the investments financed by the NRRP are fully operational.

Now it’s time for the budget manoeuvre

There is also another important distinction. The 151.7 billion indicated for 2027 represents the healthcare expenditure forecast on the basis of regulations already approved. It does not constitute the new funding that the Government may decide to allocate via the forthcoming Budget Bill. And this is precisely the issue that remains unresolved. The document does not, in fact, specify how much additional funding may be allocated to the National Health Service under the 2027 budget. It will therefore be the Budget Act that clarifies whether new funds will be added to the resources already earmarked, and to what extent.

Meanwhile, the priorities remain those that have the most direct impact on citizens’ lives: local healthcare provision, staffing and waiting lists. At a local level, the document reaffirms the course set out by the NRRP: greater integration between hospitals and local services, the development of community care homes and community hospitals, and the presence of GPs in the new facilities.

The problem, however, is no longer simply about constructing buildings. The real challenge comes afterwards: making them actually work.

The document refers to the resources allocated to the Regions for local care and healthcare infrastructure, but does not specify in this chapter any new structural funding to support the operation of community homes after 2026, nor does it set out a quantified recruitment plan for the new network. And this is where a key aspect of the reform comes into play: a community care home without a sufficient number of doctors, nurses, specialists and other professionals risks remaining a facility that exists on paper but is not fully operational.

There has been some progress on the staff front. The document refers to the proposed national collective agreement for the healthcare sector for 2025–2027, which should enable the payment of pay rises, back pay and allowances, and highlights the new specialist master’s degrees for nurses, including those focused on primary and community care. There are also plans for 1,520 specialisation grants for various healthcare professions, ranging from biologists to pharmacists, and from psychologists to vets. However, the same document, citing European recommendations, acknowledges that in some key professions, staff shortages continue to hinder the provision of timely and accessible care.

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From waiting lists to monitoring essential levels of care

Another key issue is waiting lists. The new 2026–2028 National Plan focuses on digitalisation, an increase in the number of monitored services, and the strengthening of safeguards for citizens. Once fully linked to regional systems, the National Waiting List Platform should make it possible to monitor the availability of appointments more directly, as well as ensure compliance with the ban on closing bookings. The new model also places greater emphasis on home care, community care homes and hospitals, palliative care, community pharmacy services and telemedicine.

Finally, there will also be a change in the way we assess whether the regions are actually functioning effectively. The document highlights the trial of a new system of indicators designed to complement the monitoring of essential levels of care (the LEA): not just how much is spent, therefore, but also what results are achieved. Healthcare spending is therefore set to rise, but from 2027 its share of GDP will fall to 6.3 per cent. In the meantime, a new local healthcare system, the necessary staff and a more effective response to waiting lists still need to be funded and made to function.

This is why the forthcoming Budget Bill will be crucial: it must make clear whether sufficient resources will be added to the figures already set out in the document to ensure that reforms and new structures are translated into services that are genuinely available to the public.

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