Healthcare spending is rising and now accounts for 6.3 per cent of GDP: the issue of resources is now at the heart of the budget
More money in absolute terms, then, but a smaller share of the country’s wealth. This is the dual nature of healthcare in the new Public Finance Policy Document
Key points
The new public finance document, the DPFP, raises the estimate for healthcare expenditure in 2027 by almost half a billion, but compared with the DFP forecasts from April, healthcare will account for a smaller share of national wealth and will have a lower impact on GDP, which is forecast to rise more sharply: the new forecast is for a further average increase of around 0.2 per cent compared with April, and for this reason, despite rising funding, healthcare accounts for a slightly smaller share of the wealth generated than was forecast five months ago,
Issues relating to staffing, waiting lists and the running of community homes remain unresolved; at this stage, only the budget bill itself could resolve them.
More money in absolute terms, then, but a smaller share of the country’s wealth. This is the dual nature of healthcare in the new Public Finance Policy Document, approved by the Council of Ministers on 2 October and submitted to Parliament.
Figures on the growth in expenditure in the Dpfp
In 2027, healthcare expenditure is forecast to reach 151.7 billion euros, some 446 million more than estimated as recently as April. The increase continues in subsequent years: in 2028, the figure will reach 155.6 billion, almost 600 million more than previously forecast, and in 2029 it will stand at just over 160 billion. But there is a figure that reveals the other side of the coin. In April, healthcare expenditure was forecast to stand at 6.4 per cent of GDP for the entire 2026–2029 period. Now, the 6.4 per cent figure applies only to 2026, whilst from 2027 to 2029 it falls to 6.3 per cent. This does not mean that healthcare spending is being cut: it will continue to grow, by 1.9 per cent in 2027, 2.6 per cent in 2028 and 2.8 per cent in 2029. However, the economy is now estimated to be slightly stronger than in the spring and, as a result, healthcare will account for a slightly smaller share of GDP.
A small difference, but not an insignificant one, in a health service that is simultaneously required to fund contract renewals, tackle staff shortages, care for an increasingly ageing population and ensure that the investments financed by the NRRP are fully operational.

