Asia and Oceania

Takaichi won, Japan towards the first female premier in its history

The 64-year-old conservative and nationalist leader defeated the young Shinjiro Koizumi in the ballot to assume the leadership of the Ldp

by Marco Masciaga

La nuova leader del Liberal Democratic Party (Ldp) Sanae Takaichi

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

From our correspondent

NEW DELHI - In a move aimed at mending ties with its electoral base, even at the risk of chilling relations with China and Korea and generating tensions among investors, Japan's main political party yesterday chose 64-year-old Sanae Takaichi as its leader, creating the conditions for Tokyo's parliament to elect a woman to lead the country for the first time in a dozen days' time. After an initial vote in which none of the five candidates reached a quorum, in the runoff Takaichi prevailed by 185 votes to 156 over 44-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi and took the reins of the Liberal Democratic Party (Ldp), the conservative party that has dominated almost the entire political life of post-war Japan.

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The choice of the LDP MPs marks a discontinuity in several respects. Not only because the white whale of Japanese politics had never before relied on a woman, but also because, after two premiers who were more liberal than the party's centre of gravity, the new leader marks an abrupt shift towards conservative and nationalist positions.

Normally winning the leadership of the Ldp automatically results in the premiership. This time there is a margin of uncertainty because in the last two elections the LDP lost its majority in both houses of parliament. In order to have the votes to govern, Takaichi will have to maintain relations with her current allies in Komeito, a Buddhist party with more moderate positions than her, and enlarge the majority to another party. The most likely candidates seem to be the conservatives of the Democratic Party for the People, a party known for its fiscally expansive positions. A pact with Sanseito, a right-wing populist party with xenophobic overtones that came to the fore in last July's vote, is less likely due to a question of numbers in the lower house.

Takaichi grew up in the shadow of Shinzo Abe, the longest-serving prime minister in Japan's history, and has never made a secret of having been inspired by Margaret Thatcher. In foreign policy, the new LP president is considered a hawk who could push for further defence investments and have complicated relations with other powers in the region. In the past, Takaichi has repeatedly visited the Yasukuni shrine, the most conspicuous symbol of Japan's militaristic and war crime ridden past.

In economic policy, Takaichi seems nostalgic for Abenomics, the set of fiscally and monetarily expansive policies advocated by her mentor Shinzo Abe. Recipes that however seem dissonant with a season in which inflation has become a politically explosive issue. In the past, Takaichi has criticised the Bank of Japan for raising interest rates, which is why it is widely believed among analysts that the possibility of an October hike is now remote, although, as Japan Research Institute chief economist Tomohisa Ishikawa points out, 'with a weak yen and rising prices, interfering with the BoJ's choices is becoming more difficult'. Among the candidates for the leadership of the BoJ, Takaichi was the one most in favour of an increase in public spending and the only one who had ventilated the possibility of a renegotiation of the agreement with the US on tariffs. Yesterday at a press conference, she appeared to blunt both positions, speaking of 'responsible expansionary fiscal policies' and saying she will honour the agreement with the US, although how Tokyo will invest $550 billion in the US remains nebulous. "I expect that the more extreme aspects of its proposals will be diluted by the legislative process," says Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute.

The election of Takaichi seems destined to represent a sharp turn to the right even on the issue of civil liberties. The probable future premier is against same-sex marriages, has said she believes women should be wives and mothers first and foremost, would prefer that they not be able to keep their surnames after marriage, and is also opposed to the imperial succession one day ceasing to be an exclusively male affair.

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