Export, Made in Italy starts again: Germany and France hold. But the 10 months are in the red

The mini-recovery of exports is an important signal, within a phase of slowdown that for industry in terms of industrial production has now been going on for 21 consecutive months in the tendential data, a drop of more than three points in the first ten months of 2024 that spares few sectors and whose main points of difficulty are the automobile (in October production almost halved) and textiles-clothing.

In the estimates of Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, 2024 for the industry will close with a slowdown of about 20 billion on the revenue side, and the weakness of cross-border sales is one of the key elements of this slowdown. A reduction in exports that would be even more marked if gold sales to Turkey were excluded from the calculation, a contingent situation linked to the higher taxes imposed by Ankara on non-EU purchases, which penalised imports from Switzerland and the Arab Emirates, rewarding the Arezzo district in particular. Which in just nine months sold almost three billion more for the "jewellery and semi-finished products" chapter compared to the previous year, taking the province to absolute first place in Italy for overall export growth rate in 2024.

In October 2024, a larger cyclical decrease is estimated for exports (-1.9%) than for imports (-0.3%). The month-on-month decrease in exports is marked for non-EU markets (-3.2%), moderate for the EU area (-0.7%).

In the quarter August-October 2024, compared to the previous quarter, exports grew by 0.6%, imports by 1.1%.

In October 2024, exports grew year-on-year by 1.6% in monetary terms, while they were almost stationary in volume terms (-0.1%). The growth in exports in value terms is the result of an increase for EU markets (+3.7%) and a moderate decrease for non-EU markets (-0.7%). Imports recorded a moderate trend growth in value (+0.4%), summarising an increase in the EU area (+3.9%) and a contraction in the non-EU area (-4.0%); in volume, imports increased by 1.2%.

Sectors contributing most to the trend growth in exports include: sporting goods, games, musical instruments, jewellery, medical instruments and other products not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.) (+35.8%), foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco (+10.5%) and pharmaceutical, chemical, medical and botanical items (+11.5%). Exports of coke and refined petroleum products (-57.2%), motor vehicles (-23.7%), transport equipment, excluding motor vehicles (-12.6%) and machinery and equipment n.e.c. (-0.3%) declined year-on-year.

On an annual basis, the countries making the largest contributions to the increase in domestic exports are: Turkey (+33.5%), the UK (+10.8%), France (+4.4%), Spain (+8.0%) and Belgium (+10.3%). In contrast, the US (-11.8%) and OPEC countries (-17.6%) made the largest negative contributions.

In the first ten months of 2024, exports declined slightly year-on-year (-0.5%), with lower sales of motor vehicles (-14.5%), coke and refined petroleum products (-15.4%) and basic metals and metal products, excluding machinery and equipment (-4.3%) contributing most. In contrast, important positive contributions came from higher sales of sporting goods, games, musical instruments, jewellery, medical instruments and other products n.e.c. (+19.7%), food, beverages and tobacco (+8.3%) and pharmaceutical, chemical, medical and botanical goods (+6.5%).

The trade balance in October 2024 was +5,153 million (it was +4,495 million in October 2023). The energy deficit narrows to -4,706 million from -5,204 million a year earlier. The surplus in non-energy trade increases from 9,700 million in October 2023 to 9,860 million in October 2024.

In October 2024 import prices decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 1.5% on an annual basis (it was -0.5% in September).