Houses, the race slows down. More purchases (with mortgage) but prices are stable

The residential market in Italy is slowing down. The number of sales is still growing - those with mortgages are increasing by double figures - but prices are stabilising. However, the appeal of renting also continues, so much so that rents are showing no respite: +3.5% growth on a trend basis. These are the findings of the 3rd Observatory on the Real Estate Market 2025, conducted by Nomisma, which analysed real estate performance at a national level and in the 13 main Italian markets: Bari, Bologna, Cagliari, Catania, Florence, Genoa, Milan, Naples, Padua, Palermo, Rome, Turin and Venice.

According to Nomisma, low inflation, the recovery of households' purchasing power and the still low interest rates on mortgages have favoured the increase in capital disbursed by banks to support home purchases and the continuation of the growth of buying and selling. The preliminary forecast for home purchases and sales in 2025 foresees an estimated increase of +5.5%, confirming the market recovery phase that began in the last quarter of 2024.
The home purchase sector was driven by mortgage-backed sales which, as noted by Nomisma, grew by +25.5% in trend terms in the first half of 2025. On the contrary, those backed by liquidity, showed substantial stability.

Home prices recorded a moderate but steady growth over the course of the year. According to the Nomisma Observatory, house prices grew by +0.6% in the last six months of the year, more moderate than the + 1.3% recorded in the first half of the year. This increase is attributable to a return of negotiations between supply and demand, which have limited the downward correction in demand, while sellers' expectations have stabilised.

"The picture that emerged in the second half of this year," reads the report, "suggests a market that is still vital, but with signs of greater caution compared to the rebound observed in the first months of the year. Over the year as a whole, nominal house prices have held up, with an average increase of +1.5%, confirming a positive trend, but one that is gradually slowing down compared to the two-year period 2022-2023'.

In the second half of the year Nomisma noted a shift in the share of potential demand for purchase towards rental (49 per cent and 51 per cent respectively). According to the agents interviewed, the 4 percentage point growth in demand for renting over the past year is mainly attributable to the fact that renting represents a temporary solution while waiting for more favourable market conditions for purchase and, secondly, to the ability to better respond to the changes that are sweeping the world of work and lifestyles, as well as allowing liquidity to be used in other forms of investment.