Bocconi research

"'This is how Galileo helps companies innovate'

According to the study, the scientific method helps to make difficult decisions in times of uncertainty and to grow: examples from Paypal to Luxottica

La statua  " Galileo Galilei Divin uomo di Tsung Dao Lee, premio Nobel per la fisica nel 1957 inaugurata oggi all'interno della Basilica di Santa Maria degli Angeli a Roma. ALESSANDRO DI MEO- ANSA- COC

4' min read

  • The scientific method and positive examples
  • The experiment in Tanzania and the EU
  • From coal to gas in the kitchen
  • The scientific method and start-ups
  • More revenue
  • The case of chef Gegè Mangano
  • The Saim project
  • Between Aristotle and Steve Jobs

4' min read

Intuition alone is not enough. For the entrepreneur who really wants to innovate or for those who have to make difficult decisions amidst great uncertainty, it is

useful to turn to Galileo Galilei and his scientific method. To grow more if the idea works or to have fewer losses if it does not.

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The scientific method and positive examples

ThusPaypal, for example, has broken through the digital payment mechanism, working first on transaction security; thus Luxottica has changed the way we understand glasses, turning them into a fashion accessory as well; thus many start-ups can be helped to predict their future. In any sector and anywhere in the world. In Milan, London, as in Tanzania. Where the scientific method is changing the way of cooking.

The experiment in Tanzania and the EU

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The latest experiment, carried out in Africa, by a pool of international researchers also confirmed the results of a study conducted by the Bocconi University, together with universities in several countries: if the entrepreneur uses an approach based on cause and effect logic, i.e. on the concatenations of a 'theory of value' as well as on experimentation, he achieves greater growth in revenues and profits and is more successful in 'implementing strategic and coordinated changes in business models', is the conclusion of the paper published in Organisation Science..

In Tanzania l’ultimo esperimento della ricerca

A conclusion that is all the more valuable in times of great uncertainty, including new geo-political scenarios, the advent of artificial intelligence and possible changes in corporate strategies: all variables that cannot be tackled with data from the past, but in this new context the scientific method 'helps us make decisions under conditions of uncertainty: it is a protocol for disciplining our causal thinking and understanding what actions to take', summarises Alfonso Gambardella, professor of Corporate managment at Bocconi, who together with colleagues Arnaldo Camuffo and Andrea Coali, signed the study. As is the case with the experimentation of new drugs, the entrepreneurs were divided into two groups: one followed a method based only on experimentation, the second first developed a 'theory of value' made up of logical hypotheses and concatenations between the various elements, then experimentation. The latter had higher revenues and profits, and also a greater ability to adapt over time.

From coal to gas in the kitchen

In Tanzania, the experiment concerned - among other things - the use of coal for cooking: toxic, polluting and dangerous - can it be replaced by gas? When it was found, in the field, that the use of fossil fuels was not due to taste choices - ('if I like pizza in a wood-fired oven better, I find it hard to change my habits', Gambardella exemplifies) - but only to its greater availability, it became clear that there was market space for companies aiming to introduce technologies and infrastructure to bring gas into homes."

The Scientific Method and Start-ups

From the particular to the general, why for example do many start-ups fail? Because they fail to predict the future. 'Sometimes intuition is not enough, you need to develop a logical chain of antecedents and consequences. And then do the experimentation,' Gambardella explains: 'start-ups that use the scientific method never end their activities earlier, because they realise more clearly and in time any mistakes and thus reduce their losses. But if they are strengthened in their ideas, those companies become more solid'. They earn more, when they survive; they lose less, if they lower the shutter.

Dazi, Donnet: "Grande incertezza, servono lucidità e risposta misurata"

More revenue

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Numbers in hand, both in Tanzania and in the studies in Italy and other European countries, about 50% more sales after one year for the entrepreneurs of the 'scientific method' group than for the others. But the conclusions of this latest experiment, carried out in an economic context very different from the western cities of the first studies (Milan, Turin, London, Barcelona), confirmed the goodness of a systemic result, effective in any context.

The case of chef Gegè Mangano

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In Apulia, for example, in Monte Sant'Angelo, the chef Gegè Mangano, before opening his restaurant in an area dominated by mass-produced trattorias, advertised it and for three months when asked for reservations, replied that he still had no availability. 'So if customers kept calling, it proved that that sense of "exoticness" and scarcity,' Gambardella explains, 'compared to the local context, could have a future. The chronicles - and subsequent issues - confirmed that he was right.

The Saim Project

This study is part of the Bocconi's Scientific Approach to Innovation Management, project Saim funded by the European Research Council (ERC): it aims to test precisely under what circumstances a scientific approach can help to make the most effective decisions.

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A method that 'great managers naturally apply,' concludes coordinator Gambardella, citing a lesson from Sergio Marchionne and again the digital innovation brought by Marco Tronchetti Provera in the Pirelli tyre market, 'and that could help others change the very way they do business.

Between Aristotle and Steve Jobs

It is no coincidence that it was named Aristotle, after the great philosopher father of logical thought, the artificial intelligence tool, tested with entrepreneurs and managers at Sda Bocconi, precisely to make decisions scientifically. And it is no coincidence that it was a visionary like Steve Jobs who in a way already foresaw this.


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