The AfD’s triumph takes the Italian right by surprise. Meloni ponders the election date and Vannacci

The populist wind is blowing strongly once again in Europe, this time tinged with Nazi nostalgia. And the triumph of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, the oldest and poorest of Germany’s federal states, complicates the deliberations in Italia by Giorgia Meloni and her allies on three key issues: relations with Germany under Friedrich Merz and with Europe in general; the alliance with Roberto Vannacci; and the date of the election.

Even the initial reactions are setting off alarm bells within the majority. With the two deputy prime ministers heading in opposite directions: the League’s Matteo Salvini congratulates ‘my friend Alice Weidel’ on her ‘resounding success’ (whilst local leader Ulrich Siegmund receives praise from Elon Musk: ‘Well done’), whilst the centre-right Antonio Tajani speaks of ‘terrible news’ and the rise of a political force ‘at odds with liberal and Western values’. A predictable rift, even if Salvini’s jubilation clashes with the fact that the AfD is twinned precisely with Vannacci, the great traitor. He gloats, quoting Turandot: Mario Monti, with whom he clashed on stage at Cernobbio, “will have to devote his meagre energy to the AfD as well. Nessun dorma”.

For the Prime Minister, who has chosen not to comment – “She has never interfered in other countries’ elections”, her staff explain diplomatically – this is yet another factor to be taken into account in the complex assessments currently under way. Not that the Saxon result had not been anticipated, but the percentage of the vote – 43.8 per cent – exceeded forecasts and confirms the extent to which radicalised messaging and anti-European Union sentiment are resonating with an impoverished electorate that is increasingly weary of war.

The party line at Fratelli d’Italia is quickly established: normalise, do not demonise. ECR co-chair, Nicola Procaccini, stated on Radio 24 that ‘AfD is not a neo-Nazi party’ and that ‘it is a party with which we have differing views, particularly on foreign policy, because they have this positivist approach towards Russia and China; however, I refuse to go so far as to label it an anti-democratic and extremist party – that is something I cannot agree with’. The Fdi group leader in the Chamber of Deputies, Galeazzo Bignami, is on the same wavelength. “All things considered, the result is a positive thing, because the left has lost,” he says. And he adds: “When the people have spoken, the result must be accepted.”

Setting aside concerns about the fallout for Merz, which could reignite the crisis with Italy over ‘Dublin cases’ that the Chancellor wants to send back, it is clear that the Italian right will have to make some course corrections. First and foremost, by stepping up its criticism of the EU. It is no coincidence that Meloni, whilst receiving the Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever at Palazzo Chigi, once again lashed out at the EU over immigration, energy costs and competitiveness. Nor is it a coincidence that Tajani, the most pro-European figure in the coalition, immediately set out his vision in *Il Messaggero* of a ‘Europe that must change: no more fundamentalism, no more Green Deal, less bureaucracy, yes to the single market. In general, less ideological choices, less detached from the public’. This has always been Meloni’s line, as she has made the battle against ‘ideological environmentalism’ and the risk of ‘industrial desertification’ – exacerbated by European policies – her rallying cry. It is easy to imagine that she will wave this banner with ever-greater vigour.