IMF: Wars and AI are creating a two-speed global economy. Growth forecast for Italia revised upwards: +0.8 per cent in 2026
Global GDP stands at 3.1 per cent, but resilience is stretched to the limit and countries exposed to the conflict in the Middle East and those left out of the race for new technologies are falling behind. The United States and Asian manufacturers are among the winners. There is an urgent need to reduce public debt.
A resilient global economy, yet one increasingly split in two by wars and artificial intelligence, which leave behind winners, losers and a great deal of uncertainty. This is the picture painted by the International Monetary Fund in its update to its forecasts, just published (WEO). The IMF essentially confirms its July estimates, projecting global GDP growth of 3.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent for 2026 and 2027 respectively. At the same time, it warns that the resilience of economies and businesses has its limits and that these limits could soon be put to the test if corrective measures are not taken. For Italia, the forecast for 2026 rises by three decimal places, with estimated growth reaching 0.8 per cent.
A two-speed world
“The global economy,” says the IMF, “is not simply slowing down or speeding up; rather, growth is being redistributed amongst countries depending on their exposure to the supply shock caused by the war and the strength of demand linked to artificial intelligence.”
This benefits, in particular, countries not directly involved in conflicts, which export energy or play an important role in the development of new technologies. At the other end of the spectrum are economies that import energy and are poorly integrated into the technology value chain.
Among the winners are the United States, the country which, through the war in Iran, investment in AI and tariffs, is influencing the global economy more than any other – for better or for worse. The IMF confirms growth forecasts of 2.3 per cent for 2026 and 2027. Economic activity is underpinned by robust private consumption, fiscal policy, accommodative financial conditions, investment in technology and strong productivity. The direct impact of the war remains limited, thanks to the country’s status as a net energy exporter. According to the IMF, inflation will not return to 2 per cent until mid-2028.
A faster-than-expected expansion of artificial intelligence could boost US GDP by an additional 0.4 per cent and global GDP by 0.6 per cent by 2029. Together, the United States and China accounted for over 75 per cent of net imports of AI-related IT hardware in 2025 and 57 per cent of newly built data centres from 2024 onwards.
