Agribusiness

Potato production in Europe down by 15 per cent: are chips at risk?

Due to the drought, prices are rising for large potatoes, which are best suited to industrial processing into ‘french fries’. In Italia, the 2026 harvest saw a more modest fall (-5.5 per cent), but we import 50 per cent of our requirements

by Silvia Marzialetti

1 October 2026

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4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

From overproduction to a shortage of produce in just over a year: this is the paradox of the potato supply chain, which is set to close the 2026/2027 season with a sharp decline, particularly in Europe, where policies to adjust supply – implemented to restore the balance with demand – have been hampered by an unexpected drought.

Italia above average...

The situation is better in Italia where, in the words of Unapa’s president, Augusto Di Silvio, ‘the sector is holding up thanks to better investment planning and the integrated supply chain policies developed over the years. This system has made it possible to promote domestic produce and mitigate the effects of market fluctuations’.

This trend is clearly evident in the data. “At this stage of the season, Italia’s expected production can be estimated at just over 1.3 million tonnes (-5.5 per cent compared with 2025), whilst in the EU-27 the decline compared with 2025 is expected to be very significant, between -10 and -15 per cent, for an expected total of between 47.5 and 50.5 million tonnes”, comments Nicola Pizzoli, CEO of Pizzoli, which is Italy’s leading industrial player in the fresh and frozen potato sector and which, thanks to its well-established presence throughout the entire supply chain, is able to directly monitor the progress of the potato season.

...but the 50 per cent shortfall remains

However, our country continues to run a structural deficit in terms of domestic consumption and must therefore rely on imports for at least 40–50 per cent, mainly from Europe, whose agricultural sector – as Di Silvio points out – is currently experiencing a severe crisis.

In the four main potato-producing countries of north-western Europe (France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands), the area under cultivation has been reduced by around 11 per cent, falling from approximately 604,100 hectares to just under 536,900 (data from NEPG, North-Western European Potato Growers). The most telling example is France, where five heatwaves accompanied by an exceptional water shortage severely hampered crop development, to the extent that the UNPT (National Union of Potato Producers) estimates that by 2026, production of potatoes for consumption will be down by 23 per cent, representing a shortfall of almost two million tonnes and economic losses for French producers estimated at at least 400 million euros.

More expensive crisps?

But what is causing the most disruption to the market is, above all, the product intended for the processing industry, which is concentrated precisely in the key north-western region: here, in addition to heat and water stress, production is hampered by an excess of small-sized potatoes, which render a large proportion of the harvest unsuitable for processing into French fries (the French fries sector is worth around 500 million euros in Europe).

This is confirmed by Massimo Cristiani, president of the Consorzio Patata Italiana di Qualità-Selenella and of Ce.Pa Coordination of the Potato Exchange (a body which, amongst other things, coordinates and oversees the activities of the Potato Exchange, established to record, indicate and set the prices of the product): ‘Within a European potato market in crisis, the sector hardest hit is undoubtedly that of industrial processing, with companies that did not enter into hedging contracts – hoping for a price collapse – now finding themselves penalised on their purchases. We are also facing a shortage in Italia, but this does not mean that frozen chips will no longer be available; rather, it means that prices are inevitably set to rise.”

“The industrial potato,” Cristiani goes on to explain, “is in every respect a commodity that is affected by market fluctuations. “At present, we estimate a 10–15 per cent increase in the price of the product at source: it remains to be seen whether the industry will be able to absorb these price rises or not, given that it is facing a barrage of cost increases, with energy costs being the primary factor.”

“In a context such as this,” adds Pizzoli, “it is reasonable to expect that commodity price trends will reflect the extraordinary conditions that have characterised this season, with potential pressures on procurement costs throughout the entire European supply chain.”

The Italians Pizzoli and Romagnoli

For the Pizzoli supply chain, which spans 15 Italian regions, the yield picture has improved slightly compared with last year, when performance had reached particularly low levels. “Following a challenging year,” says the CEO, “the available quantities are, on the whole, sufficient and in line with the established plans; and, even in a challenging environment, the company reaffirms its commitment to ensuring production continuity and regularity of supply throughout the entire season.”

Giulio Romagnoli, CEO of Romagnoli F.lli, returns to the subject of the major weather variable: “The summer that is drawing to a close confirms just how central the weather factor has now become in the planning of the potato supply chain, both in Italia and across the rest of Europe,” he says. According to Romagnoli, yields have fallen by around 15 per cent compared with the average of recent seasons.

For early crops, the impact has been more limited, with yields falling by around 10 per cent. The situation appears more critical, however, for mid- to late-season crops in Emilia-Romagna and Veneto, where losses of up to 25 per cent have been recorded.