Industry: production expectations remain stable, but the war is driving up energy and transport costs
Study Centre survey on large enterprises: expectations of stability in June, concerns over the impact of the war in the Middle East on production costs
Key points
Production expectations remained stable in June, showing a slight improvement on May, rising to 47.3 from 43.9. The proportion of those expecting a moderate or significant increase stands at 43.9 per cent and remains virtually stable; those expecting a decline account for 8.8 per cent, down from 14.3 per cent in the previous survey.
Key issues: energy costs and transport
Demand and orders are the main supporting factors. However, the impact of the war in the Middle East must be taken into account: based on responses regarding the main problems and obstacles linked to the conflict, it emerges that the main problems experienced are the cost of energy raw materials, cited as the most significant factor by 28.2 per cent of businesses, followed by transport, logistics and insurance costs, 21.4 per cent, and the rise in the cost of non-energy raw materials and intermediate inputs, 15.0 per cent.
Without geopolitical stabilisation, further price rises are possible
Unless the geopolitical situation stabilises, the main concern is a further rise in transport and insurance costs, as indicated by 19.7 per cent of the companies that responded. This is followed by rising prices for non-energy raw materials (19.4 per cent) and the risk of obstacles or a reduction in exports to countries involved in the conflict, which is the third most frequently cited risk factor (17.9 per cent).
This is what emerges from the Flash Survey on the activities of large industrial member companies, published by Confindustria’s Research Centre and covering June 2026: production expectations are stable, but the war is driving up energy and transport costs.
RTT Index 2.0: turnover down in industry and services
The Research Centre has also published the RTT Index 2.0, which is the result of an update to the methodology (the index is calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted and deflated turnover data from a sample of TeamSystem’s client companies), The Real Time Index, developed by Confindustria’s Research Centre, which provides a real-time estimate of changes in companies’ turnover, recorded a fall in May, -0.4%, due to a fall in industry (-2.5% following a virtually stable trend over the previous three months) and services (-1.6% following significant increases between February and April), after a +0.3% rise in April. In construction, too, the RTT showed a decline of -0.3%, though this was more limited than in other sectors. The cumulative change for the second quarter was positive for services and construction, but turned negative for manufacturing.
