Istat revises its estimates upwards; inflation stands at 2.9 per cent in July. Inflation is also rising in Germany
The final figures. Prices of the goods making up the ‘shopping basket’ have slowed on a year-on-year basis to +1.0 per cent, whilst core inflation remains stable (at +1.6 per cent)
Key points
In July 2026, Istat explains, inflation fell to +2.9 per cent (from +3.0 per cent in June), mainly as a result of price trends for unprocessed food and unregulated energy products. Conversely, inflation was supported by prices for regulated energy products and certain types of services. Prices of the goods making up the ‘shopping basket’ slowed on a year-on-year basis to +1.0%, whilst core inflation remained stable (at +1.6%). The inflation path for 2026, as indicated by July’s figures, rises to +2.7%.
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded a month-on-month change of -1.0 per cent, due to the summer sales, which are not taken into account by the National Institute of Statistics (NIC), and a year-on-year change of +2.9 per cent (down from +3.0 per cent in the previous month), confirming the preliminary estimate.
Istat: holiday costs – eating out and staying overnight cost 3.4 per cent more in 2025
Eating out and staying away from home is becoming increasingly expensive during the summer holidays. Istat lists restaurant and accommodation services among the main expenditure categories that recorded accelerating year-on-year price growth in July. Prices have risen by 3.4% compared with a year ago, when the year-on-year increase relative to 2024 stood at 2.9%. Transport services are also accelerating, rising from +1.1% year-on-year in July 2025 to +1.6% last month. Flying costs less than a year ago, but compared with the slump in prices in the summer of 2025 (down 10.3 per cent year-on-year in July), the saving has almost halved (down 5.6 per cent).
German inflation rises to 2.8% in July
Inflation, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index, is also rising in Germany. This was announced by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on the basis of final estimates. It stood at 2.8 per cent in July 2026. The rate has risen from 2.3% in June and 2.6% in May 2026. Only in April was inflation slightly higher, at 2.9%. ‘Energy prices continued to rise at an above-average rate and thus remained the main driver of inflation. The rise in energy prices was much more pronounced than in the previous month, pushing up the inflation rate,’ said Ruth Brand, President of Destatis. “In particular, fuel prices rose significantly compared with the previous month. This was due to the end of the government’s fuel subsidy on 30 June, which coincided with the rise in oil prices following the ongoing war with Iran,” adds Brand. Compared with June, consumer prices rose by 0.8 per cent.
