Intesa Sanpaolo: quarterly analysis, growth strategies and banking reorganisation

After closing their 2024 financial statements with record profits, Italian banks are set to disclose their results for the first quarter of 2025 starting next week. Will the fall in interest rates that has taken place in the meantime have reduced lending profit margins? And will the expected increase in commission income really have compensated for the reduction in net interest income for everyone?

Quarterly earnings are particularly awaited by the market to see whether the current (maxi) stock market valuations are sustainable. And the expectation is higher than usual because almost all major listed banks are at the centre of public share exchange offers, the success of which also depends on the market price.

The only major bank not participating in the risiko is market leader Intesa Sanpaolo, which, due to antitrust constraints, has no margin for external growth in the banking sector. Intesa Sanpaolo itself will be the first bank to release its first quarter results.

A few days after the shareholders' meeting that confirmed him at the helm of the group for a three-year term, CEO Carlo Messina will present the quarterly accounts to financial analysts on Tuesday 6 May. It will be a particularly eagerly awaited conference call, given the ongoing evolution of the competitive environment, which is changing the structure of the banking world as well as that of insurance (Generali) and wealth management (Mediobanca-Banca Generali).

And it is precisely in the light of the most recent initiatives that it will be interesting to understand what Messina's assessments are of a system reorganisation that, in addition to its industrial connotations, is clearly also a power game that also involves the government in the guise of referee and sometimes player (Mps).