Investments, NATO, Carabinieri: an additional 4.8 billion for Defence

In the three volumes of the Budget Law published yesterday by the Chamber of Deputies – totalling 1,782 pages – the financial commitment that the budget allocates to the revitalisation of the defence sector takes shape. The details of how the national safeguard clause will be used are also set out – the clause that allows measures to be financed through the deficit, in derogation from the constraints of the EU Pact, which until now have remained somewhat in the shadows. The reason is technical. The bulk of the additional expenditure does not appear in Section I of the Budget Law – where the new legislative provisions that attract general attention are set out – but is instead included in Section II, where, often outside the spotlight of public debate, cuts and refinancing of expenditure items managed by the various ministries take place. It is here that the portfolio managed by Guido Crosetto takes centre stage.

A (not entirely straightforward) analysis spanning articles, paragraphs and tables allows us to gauge the defence budget’s share of the budget. The figures reveal additional funding of 4.8 billion next year and 10.9 billion over the three-year period covered by the Budget Law; however, this is largely concentrated in 2027–28 precisely because the main driver of expenditure is the deficit permitted by the clause, which expires in two years’ time.For example, the largest item falls within this timeframe: the ‘implementation of multi-year investment programmes for national defence requirements’ (2.6 billion in 2027 and the same amount in 2028). One billion next year and 844 million the following year will go towards ‘operating costs’, that is, the total expenditure required to ensure day-to-day operations and routine maintenance. The ‘Joint Rapid Response Force’ – a term referring to joint-force plans ready for immediate deployment to tackle crises – will receive 267 million next year and the same amount the year after. Meanwhile, the NATO Security Investment Programme (NSIP) will receive 134.8 and 196.7 between 2027 and 2028. The same funding pool will provide the 164.3 million (100.6 in the first year, the remainder in the second) earmarked for investments to renew and modernise the Carabinieri, in a framework that is rounded off by the 4.5 million over two years allocated to the National Diving Centre.

The figure so far falls well short of the 7.2 billion announced for the use of the clause. However, as is also the case with energy, it may include measures already provided for in the draft budget, as part of the give-and-take that has freed up scope for the ordinary budget. But the refinancing for the Ministry does not cover the full range of new defence measures, which are also set out in Section I of the Budget Law. Here, the figures refer to net borrowing, rather than the net balance to be financed as in Section II: the sum therefore assumes that there are no timing discrepancies between the two figures.The budget bill provides for 104 million over two years for ‘the modernisation of the Armed Forces’ infrastructure’, and 47.9 million for the Global Combat Air Programme, the next-generation fighter aircraft being developed by Leonardo in partnership with BAE Systems (UK) and JAEIC (Japan). The package is further supplemented by resources (primarily domestic) to fund ‘regulatory measures relating to defence’, 1.47 billion over three years, as well as recruitment and overtime for the Carabinieri (174.9 million over the three-year period: similar measures, not included in this calculation, apply to the Police and the Guardia di Finanza).

Meanwhile, 4.7 million is allocated to ‘Strade sicure’ (Safe Roads), the programme particularly dear to the Lega, which involves a military presence in towns and cities, and which has been extended for the time being only until 31 March. The picture is then rounded off by the refinancing of international missions, which are channelled through the Ministry of the Economy but form part of the integrated defence budget: they will receive 368.7 million from the budget next year and a further 558.9 in 2028.