Investing in the home? Better value than the stock market (but only in the centre of Milan)

And prices? They will not fall. After an increase of 2.2 per cent in 2024 over 2023, the estimate for this year is that values could rise by up to 5 per cent due to the reduced availability of a housing supply in line with demand, especially in the markets of the most attractive capitals and their hinterlands. In particular, it is precisely the structural shortage of new construction that will cause prices for new construction to rise from 5.8% in 2024 to an expected 6.5% in 2025.

"Nowadays, we no longer talk about 'housing' as an object, but it is 'living' that is the focus of our analysis," explained Breglia. "The search for the right neighbourhood in which to live is worth as much and perhaps more than the purchase price. The presence of greenery, security, schools, services are fundamental needs. A shortage of new and less supply even of used properties (also due to the push of short leases) are driving up prices, which are decidedly higher than the increase in incomes. With enormous delay, we are beginning to talk about investments in housing by the public sector. But big investors are still disincentivised in our country'.

"If we look at Milan," added Giuseppe Crupi, CEO of Abitare Co., "the capital is no longer able to meet housing demands. The time has come to think of a market that encompasses the entire metropolitan city, including all the neighbouring municipalities connected to the capital by metro and railway lines".

'Residential is a sector that, compared to others, can also benefit from non-core investors,' explained Corrado Trabacchi (Orion Capital Managers), 'but the slowness of permits and the absence of clear rules on urban regeneration divert capital elsewhere. Business plans are getting longer and economic cycles are getting shorter. We invest much more in Spain. Moreover, the dwarfism of operators only offers small deals. It is difficult to buy platforms and listed companies'.

If the government's Piano casa is moving laboriously, with an initial allocation of 660 million (between pilot projects 2027-2028 and implementation 2028-2030), in addition to the unused Pnrr resources in the Pinqua programmes (between 300 and 400 million), "in the absence of updated national legislation, for the 10,000 new units Piano casa of the Milan municipality we have already received 24 proposals for expressions of interest from private parties," concluded the Lombard capital's town planning councillor, Giancarlo Tancredi.