The research

Investment in solar power is on the rise

Cerved Rating Agency: energy companies’ expenditure set to rise by 191 per cent in 2025

 (AdobeStock)

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Investments are set to triple by 2025 (+191 per cent year-on-year), with 32 per cent concentrated on solar power, and prospects significantly above average in 2026 as well. The strategies of the major energy companies are revealed in the latest research by Cerved Rating Agency into the electricity and gas retail sector.

The analysis – which complements the recent ‘Credit Outlook 2026: mid-year review’ on the trend in default probabilities for Italian companies up to 2027 – is based on a panel of companies accounting for 45 per cent of sales volumes in the electricity sector and 34 per cent of gas volumes (excluding the top 10 operators).

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The data reveals a business ecosystem that is more resilient than it was when the energy crisis broke out in 2022 following the war in Ukraine: the investments made and those planned to ensure security and diversify supply sources are improving companies’ financial positions. Furthermore, the recent US-Iran conflict has not caused gas prices to rise as sharply as oil prices.

These factors have enabled the companies in the panel to see a recovery in their profit margins: the post-war crisis in Ukraine sent shockwaves through the entire sector, a development which, for many companies, prompted an internal restructuring that is now yielding results.

The diversification of supply sources and the change in payment terms (for example, through monthly invoicing) have increased working capital and enabled many businesses to take on debt again, whilst the rise in cash flows has improved their net financial position, reducing the level of risk compared with a few years ago.

“The increased liquidity,” the report states, “is flowing into major investments. Indeed, the improvement in economic performance, together with the normalisation of sector dynamics and the resulting positive effects on cash flows, has led to a general strengthening of companies’ debt levels and a renewed propensity to invest, focused primarily on renewable energy sources.”

Although the roll-out of renewables in Italia is proceeding slowly, as also highlighted in some recent surveys by Il Sole 24 Ore, the electrification of suppliers is on the rise. Demand for gas remains strong, however: companies in the panel report rising sales volumes even beyond 2022, thanks to an expansion of their customer base – a stable trend that the geopolitical crisis has not halted.

From a risk profile perspective, however, the portfolio of small and medium-sized companies is now less risky due to their greater focus on low-voltage customers; whereas larger companies have more diversified businesses, which help to limit the volatility of their results and cash flows.

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