Iran: US bases in Europe at risk – from Bulgaria to Cyprus and on to Italy
According to the Financial Times, Tehran is considering possible attacks on US military targets in Europe in the event of an escalation. Facilities in the south-east of the continent are the most vulnerable, whilst reaching those in Italia would require longer-range missiles
The Iranian threat may not be confined to the Middle East. If Donald Trump were to decide to escalate the war and strike at the Islamic Republic’s infrastructure, Tehran is reportedly considering possible attacks on US military targets, including those in Europe. This was revealed by the Financial Times, which cites sources close to the Iranian regime and points in particular to the south-east of the continent, with Bulgaria and Cyprus among the areas being considered for a possible retaliation.
Not all US bases, however, are equally vulnerable. The key factor is, in particular, their distance from Iran and, consequently, the range of the missiles available to Tehran. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the Islamic Republic possesses the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Its longest-range systems are generally believed to have a range of around 2,000 kilometres, perhaps even more, which is sufficient to reach parts of south-eastern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean, but not enough to automatically bring all US installations on the continent within range.
One of the most exposed outposts is Bezmer, in Bulgaria, an airbase also used to support the operations of American tanker aircraft. Further south, in the eastern Mediterranean, RAF Akrotiri—the large British base in Cyprus—is of particular importance, serving as a strategic hub for intelligence and reconnaissance activities and for operations in the Middle East.
Akrotiri has already been directly drawn into the conflict. In March, the base was struck by a an Iranian-made Shahed drone, causing no casualties and only limited damage. According to British and Cypriot officials quoted by Reuters, the drone was likely launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon. Subsequently, the British government also referred to the attack as having been carried out by a drone linked to an Iranian proxy.
The incident had occurred whilst London and Washington were discussing the use of British facilities. The Prime Minister Keir Starmer had initially ruled out the use of UK bases for US offensive strikes against Iran. London subsequently authorised Washington to use them for a purpose defined by the British government as ‘specific and limited’: to strike Iranian missiles in depots or at launch sites to prevent further attacks in the region. Trump had criticised the British position, arguing that the offer had come too late. The government in London also clarified that the drone targeting Akrotiri had been launched before the decision was announced.
