Middle East

Officials on both sides: Iran and the US are sliding towards war

Gulf countries and Israel now consider a conflict more likely than an agreement

Un aereo militare statunitense sull’asfalto della base aerea di Lajes, nell’isola di Terceira, Azzorre. REUTERS/Pedro Nunes

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Iran and the United States are rapidly sliding towards a military conflict as hopes for a diplomatic solution to their standoff over Tehran's nuclear programme fade. This is according to officials on both sides and diplomats in the Gulf and Europe, quoted by Reuters online. The Gulf countries and Israel now consider a conflict more likely than an agreement, these sources say, with Washington creating one of its largest military deployments in the region since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

The Israeli government believes that Tehran and Washington are in a stalemate and are preparing for a possible joint military action with the US, although no decision has yet been made on whether to carry out such an operation, a source familiar with the planning said. Regional officials say the oil-producing Gulf countries are preparing for a possible military confrontation that they fear could spiral out of control and destabilise the Middle East. Some of these sources say Tehran is dangerously miscalculating by waiting for concessions, while Donald Trump is now unable to scale back the military build-up he has ordered in the region without losing face unless there is a firm commitment from Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. US officials say Trump has not yet decided whether to resort to military force, although he admitted on Friday that he might order a limited strike to try to force Iran into a deal.

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Movements of US soldiers from bases in the Persian Golf

As tensions with Iran escalated - after the world's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, entered the Mediterranean Sea to join the US fleet in the Middle East - hundreds of US soldiers were evacuated from the Al Udeid base in Qatar. This was reported by the New York Times, citing Pentagon officials, who said that evacuations were also carried out at the group of US bases in Bahrain that house the Navy's Fifth Fleet. US troops are also present at bases in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

Donald Trump has been presented with various military options for Iran, including a scenario that would involve the killing of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his son Mojtaba. Axios reports this, citing informed sources. "The president has not yet decided to attack. He is keeping his options open, He could decide at any moment," some US officials reported.

The Trump administration would be willing to consider an Iranian proposal that would allow Tehran 'symbolic' nuclear enrichment, as long as it leaves no possibility of reaching a nuclear weapon. The scenario of symbolic enrichment, Axios points out, suggests that 'there could be an opening, however slight, between the red lines set by the US and Iran for an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities and prevent war'. At the same time, however, Trump has been presented with military options that would involve striking directly at Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A senior Trump adviser, quoted by Axios, said: 'They have something for every scenario. One scenario involves the elimination of the ayatollah, his son and the mullahs" but "nobody knows what the president will choose. I don't think even he knows'. The reference is to Khamenei and his son Mojtaba, considered a potential successor.

There are still glimmers of de-escalation, however. At least on paper. The US president, Donald Trump, 'will be prepared to accept a deal with Iran that is substantive and can sell it politically at home. If the Iranians want to avoid an attack, they should make us an offer we cannot refuse. The Iranians keep missing the opportunity. If they keep playing games, there will not be much patience,' the sources continued to Axios. Yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview with Msnbc that an Iranian proposal would be finalised 'in the next 2-3 days', but US and Israeli officials have suggested to Axios that Trump could strike Iran as early as this weekend.

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