Middle East

Attack on Israel with 180 missiles. Iran: if there is a reaction, Tel Aviv in ashes. IDF pushed back into Lebanon

Netanyahu assures that 'Iran will pay'. New Israeli raids on Beirut: half of Hezbollah's arsenal reportedly destroyed so far

1 October 2024Aggiornato il 2 ottobre 2024, ore 07:58

Sirene e sistema antimissile in azione a Tel Aviv

5' min read

They look like shooting stars. Comets peeking out of the now dark sky. Like a fountain of light, the Iron Dome system intercepts most of the missiles, which explode, splitting into many fragments. Not all of them, however. Some continue in their wake. In Tel Aviv they hit a building, others fall into the sea, in the fields, in the suburbs. They explode against military bases (at least according to Tehran's version). The same happens in several Israeli cities and localities.

A wide attack (180 missiles) that Israel expected

Iran therefore made good on its threats. The biggest attack against Tel Aviv, which had also been shocked shortly before by a terrorist attack in Jaffa in which at least six people lost their lives, came at seven o'clock in the evening. The Israelis had had time to get organised. Perhaps this is why the toll was very low: the approximately 180 missiles fired by the Islamic Republic resulted in some injuries and only one victim. It was a Palestinian from Gaza killed in the West Bank city of Jericho, an Israeli Defence source reported.

Israel was therefore prepared for Iranian retaliation. It had anticipated this. So did the United States, with its ships carrying ready-to-use anti-missile systems.

As early as three o'clock in the afternoon we received a phone call. "All children have been recalled from kindergarten. In every town in the country. Something is happening. Follow the instructions on the radio," an Italian Jewish woman who was in town warned us.

Shortly afterwards, the Israeli media reported American reports of an imminent missile attack from Iran. It was expected late in the evening, as had happened on 13 April when Iran had launched over 300 'pieces', including missiles, rockets and drones. Tehran had then warned Arab countries that have relations with Israel in good time of the retaliation. That time, the Iranian retaliation, decided after an Israeli bombing against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, had appeared to the world as a show of force (mainly for internal use), however restrained in its modalities so as not to trigger an open war.

U.S. sides with Israel and evaluates response

This time it is different. The United States spoke of an attack that was at least double in intensity and weaponry used (for the first time, Iran used the Fattah 1 hypersonic ballistic missile, unveiled 15 months ago).

US President Joe Biden immediately sided with Israel, offering 'full American support'. Biden strongly condemned the regime in Tehran. "There is an active debate going on about how Israel will respond to the Iranian ballistic missile attack," he pointed out speaking to reporters

After convulsive hours, during a meeting with the War Cabinet, the message from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also arrived in the night: 'Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it'. The PM added: 'Whoever attacks us will be attacked by us'.

The Iranian claim

Iran's vindication was not long in coming. The new president of the republic, Masoud Pezeshkian, warned on social X: 'A decisive response has been given to the aggression of the Zionist regime'. Addressing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he added: 'He must understand that Iran is not warmongering, but will firmly oppose any threat'.

In the evening, the message of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the highest authority of the Islamic Republic, also arrived. Resorting to a bellicose and rhetorical message, he pointed out: the 'righteous people' may have to make sacrifices, 'but they will not be defeated at the end of the day. They are the victors in the field'. Quoting verses from the Koran, Khamenei then predicted a and 'imminent divine victory' for Iran.

The new Iranian threats

The Iranian diplomatic mission to the UN then appealed to the Arab countries in the region to sever all relations with Jerusalem. But the Sunni Arab states, especially those that have made agreements with Israel, did not even consider it. As it did on 13 April, Jordan offered its airspace, pointing out that it had intervened with its air defence systems, neutralising several Iranian missiles.

In Tehran's eyes, yesterday's attack was a 'necessary' response to the murders of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader killed on 31 July in Tehran, and especially of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed a few days ago on 27 September while in a bunker in Beirut with the leadership of his powerful militia supported and trained by Tehran.

In the night, Iran's top military leadership then threatened Israel not to try to respond, on pain of further missile attacks, greater in intensity, against strategic infrastructure and cities.

A dramatic turning point. The conflict widens

It is a dramatic turning point. The day when the threat of an expanded conflict between Israel and Iran, the scenario everyone feared, became a reality.

Israel's reaction is likely to be swift and harsh. Joe Biden's administration then made it known that the US will coordinate with Israel on the response to Tehran.

Yesterday, Israel immediately closed its airspace, diverting incoming flights to destinations in other countries. Jordan and Iraq followed suit. As early as eight o'clock in the evening, the Israeli Airport Authority announced that it had reopened the airspace.

A success or a failure? Two diametrically opposed versions

In all wars, propaganda plays a major role. It is therefore difficult to understand whether the Iranian attack hit important targets, such as military bases and nerve centres, or was a failure. The versions are diametrically opposed. According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards even 90% of the missiles 'successfully hit targets' in the attack on Israel. "Military bases of the Zionist regime around Tel Aviv" were the target of Tehran's attack, they later specified in a statement.

President Joe Biden argued the opposite, pointing out that the Israeli anti-missile system and the American ships deployed in the area have been a great success.

Iran: attack 'due' but we do not want war

Now the world waits with bated breath, wondering whether the great regional conflict that the US and Europe have been trying to avert for months will really break out.

A conflict that, however, is spreading day by day. Certainly, Iran's attack was far-reaching, as American military experts have pointed out. Extensive. But very short: a couple of hours.

Last night, Iran declared a state of war. But the Islamic Republic is going through a very difficult time: it is divided politically, it is in economic crisis, and in any case its army is certainly inferior in means and capabilities to the Israeli one, especially if Jerusalem is to be assisted, as is rumoured, by the United States.

In short, yesterday's attack would have been a compromise solution to bring together hawks and moderates in the regime, who are deeply divided these days. Now Israel's moves are awaited. Tehran has closed the airspace.

The Ayatollahs' regime does not want war mainly because it cannot afford it. But it knows that the Israeli response will be harsh. In the troubled Middle East, the coming days will be decisive.